Would poor season series vs. Rangers matter for Penguins in playoff series?

Via peculiarity of the schedule, the bulk of the season series between Pittsburgh and New York took place over a span of roughly two weeks. One team was the decisive victor, fueling talk it would be a heavy favorite should they meet in the first round of the playoffs.

The ongoing nightmare of Pittsburgh Penguins fans right now, right?

Yes — but also the way things were playing out for their team at this time last year… only, in reverse.

And perhaps there is a lesson from what happened in 2021 — or, at very least, a reason for optimism for the Penguins.

Three regulation losses while getting outscored 11-3 over a 14-day span to the New York Rangers have cast a pall on a potential postseason matchup, one that is by no means guaranteed but has appeared likely for most of the season’s second half.

But for proof the regular-season series doesn’t necessarily carry weight when the Stanley Cup is on the line, look no further than last last winter. The Penguins last season dominated the New York Islanders, going 6-2-0 and winning six of the final seven meetings by an aggregate score of 19-12.

When the teams met in a best-of-seven, though, it was the Islanders who won four of six in a first-round playoff series.

As a result of that experience or not, the Penguins far from sounded worried after the most recent loss to the Rangers, 3-0, on Thursday night in Manhattan.

“No concern,” defenseman Kris Letang said. “We have to keep preparing to enter the playoffs and feel confident in ourselves.”

Mark Madden writes: If the #Penguins feel they can rebound from 3 straight regular-season losses to the #Rangers and beat them in a playoff series, that seems wishful thinking.https://t.co/baCxPNy5lD

— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) April 8, 2022

Entering the first round with confidence probably hasn’t been much of an issue in recent years, judging by the Penguins’ success against their postseason opponent heading into those meetings. They haven’t lost a regular-season series to a first-round foe since 2015, winning four and splitting two.

The past three years, the Penguins against the 2018-19 Islanders, 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens and 2021-22 Islanders went a combined 10-4-1.

They followed that up by going an aggregate 3-11 against them, losing all three opening-round series.

Now, even in the midst of a 2-5-1 skid including the three defeats to the Rangers, the Penguins seem resolute in maintaining confidence.

“We’re competing hard. We’re in every game,” coach Mike Sullivan said Thursday. “When you look at the last handful of games, I feel like the team has played pretty hard. We haven’t gotten the result. But we’ve just got to continue to stay with it.”

Regardless of opponent, the Penguins know as well as anyone momentum can be fickle: Last season, they entered the playoffs on a 13-3-1 stretch while the Islanders had won just six of their final 16.

It didn’t matter once a shot at the Cup was on the line.

With 10 games left, plenty can change before the start of the playoffs May 2. Penguins goalie Tristan Jarry said his team matches up “really well” with the Rangers.

“We’ve played with a depleted lineup against them almost every game,” he said. “…We have some guys coming back to our lineup, and they’ll help us. It will be a good matchup.”

Captain Sidney Crosby and defenseman John Marino sat out Thursday’s game; center Evgeni Malkin missed a March 25 loss at Madison Square Garden. Second-line wing Jason Zucker hasn’t been available for any game against the Rangers this season.

There’s plenty of tangible reason to believe a playoff meeting could end with a different result. History, too, shows little correlation between the regular season and playoffs in regards to team matchups: during the Crosby/Malkin era (since 2007), the winner of the season series in a Penguins’ first-round playoff matchup is 7-4 (the Penguins split with an opponent during the regular season four times).

That correlates — but not strongly. In 2007, for example, the Penguins beat the Ottawa Senators in three of four regular-season meetings but Ottawa cruised to a 4-1 postseason series win. The following year, the Senators won the regular-season series and the Penguins swept them in the first round.

Notice how Rangers coach Gerard Gallant first pointed to the regular-season standings — and not a potential playoff meeting — when he spoke of the importance of his team’s recent three wins against the Penguins.

“It puts us up six pints on Pittsburgh,” Gallant said late Thursday.

“We’ve played this team real well all year. All the games have been good hockey games. It’s four times, and we’ve won three times against them. … It’s another stepping stone to keep our team going.”

Keep up with the Pittsburgh Penguins all season long.