Who will the Penguins protect in the expansion draft?

Pretty much, the only certainty about who the Pittsburgh Penguins will protect for Wednesday’s expansion draft is who they must protect.

The “core.”

Franchise staples Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin each have no-movement clauses in their contracts and, by the NHL’s rules, must be protected from being selected by the incoming Seattle Kraken.

As for the rest? There are some obvious names the Penguins will include to their list of seven forwards, three defenseman and a goaltender.

And there are some borderline choices who might wind up in the Pacific Northwest when the season opens in October.

Whom should the Penguins place on that list? Consider this an educated guess:

(Note: Players are listed with their salary cap hits.)

Forwards

Teddy Blueger, center ($2.2 million) — Having signed a two-year contract extension Wednesday, Blueger’s importance has been heightened by the right knee injury that likely will sideline Malkin for some portion of the season. Depth at center is vital to how the Penguins operate, and Blueger, arguably the team’s top defensive forward, is a major component of that dynamic.

Sidney Crosby, center ($8.7 million) — As mentioned above, he must be protected by rule.

Jake Guentzel, left winger ($6 million) — Not a lot of thought needs to go into this one. Guentzel is young (26), has three years remaining on his contract and has established chemistry with Crosby like few wingers ever have. As one of the more talented players on the roster, he won’t be going anywhere soon.

Kasperi Kapanen, right winger ($3.2 million) — Kapanen is kind of like a lesser version of Guentzel for the reasons listed above. He is a pending restricted free agent next season, so the Penguins still have contract control over him. And he has established chemistry with Malkin. Exposing him would make him a tempting target for the Kraken.

Evgeni Malkin, center ($9.5 million) — He must be protected by rule.

Bryan Rust, right winger ($3.5 million) — As steady and consistent of a player the Penguins have dressed over the past two seasons, protecting Rust offers minimal risk. The only risk lies in his contract status as he is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. A consistent 20 goal-threat who likely would have reached the 30-goal mark at least once were it not for the pandemic disrupting the past two seasons, he could command a heavy payday next summer.

Brandon Tanev, left winger ($3.5 million) — There are more talented players the Penguins can protect, such as fellow forward Jared McCann. But there aren’t many members of the roster who are move valued than Tanev. One of the fastest skaters in the league, Tanev is a tone-setter for the team who plays a hard game and can even chip in the occasional bit of offense. Protecting him over others would be more about not having an adequate replacement for what he offers.

Defensemen

Brian Dumoulin ($4.1 million) — Perhaps the Penguins’ best defensive entity, Dumoulin is a no-brainer to protect, even if he turns 30 on Sept. 6. One of the more respected voices in the dressing room, Dumoulin has a presence few on the roster can eclipse. And he’s the perfect counterbalance to Letang, who is always eager to take chances on the rush.

Kris Letang ($7.25 million) — He must be protected by rule.

Mike Matheson ($4.875 million) — Truth be told, Penguins management probably wouldn’t mind being liberated of Matheson’s leviathan of a contract that still has five years remaining. Losing that cap hit would create a lot of flexibility to adjust the 2021-22 roster. But there really isn’t a great choice for the third defenseman they can protect. Marcus Pettersson also has several years (four) and a large salary cap hit ($4,025,175) and offers less than what Matheson’s skill set provides. Matheson isn’t a great choice here, but he’s the best out of what is available to the Penguins.

Goaltender

Tristan Jarry ($3.5 million) — Even after his terrible performance this past postseason, Jarry is the only goaltender capable of being a starter currently in the Penguins’ system. Even with all of his flaws, the 26-year-old Jarry is hardly a lost cause. He can rebound and prove he is capable of being a franchise goaltender. Were he exposed, his modest salary cap would make Jarry a tempting choice for the Kraken.

(Note: All first- and second-year professionals, such as defenseman John Marino, are ineligible to be selected in the expansion draft.)

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