Tristan Jarry's injury suddenly increases importance of Penguins' playoff seeding

For months, my opinion on the state of the Pittsburgh Penguins has remained consistent. Given how clearcut the postseason hierarchy has been in the Eastern Conference, it’s been easy to conclude which teams would make the playoffs and which teams would be left out of the mix.

The only question has been the order of finish in the Atlantic and Metropolitan Divisions, thus determining the first-round matchups.

For much of the season, even those debates were hard to gin up, given how closely balanced the talent differential appeared to be and how tightly packed the standings were among the top eight teams in the conference.

From roughly New Year’s Day until the end of March, that’s how things had appeared to be in the East. From my point of view, whoever the Penguins drew in the first round didn’t make a difference.

All of the other seven teams were very good, even though many had questions in goal. Most of the rosters had a mixed bag when it came to playoff experience. Aside from the Lightning, most of the franchises have had a recent track record of good regular seasons, mixed with frustrating playoff results.

Not to mention, home-ice advantage in the playoffs is often overrated, specifically for the Penguins. In the East, only the Washington Capitals (eight) and the Florida Panthers (nine) have fewer regulation road losses than the Penguins (11) so far this season. So being a lower seed was hardly going to be a worrisome outcome.

But given the Penguins’ recent struggles (nine losses in their last 13 games) and the recent injury to goaltender Tristan Jarry, I’m changing my tune.

The seemingly endless surge of the Panthers is coming into the equation as well.

After Monday night’s results, the Penguins (97 points) now have just a one-point lead on the Washington Capitals for third place in the Metropolitan Division. That point total is also tied with the Boston Bruins for what would become the top wild card spot in the conference. But the Bruins already have more wins (46) than the Penguins (43) with two additional games left to play.

So if the Pens finish eighth in the conference, they may have to flip over to the Atlantic Division to face the Panthers in the first round of the playoffs. That’s an unenviable position given that Florida has won 10 games in a row and has the highest-scoring team in the NHL right now. At 4.19 goals per game, they are the only franchise in the league averaging more than four goals per contest.

Granted, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky doesn’t have a great postseason track record (a 13-23 record/3.24 goals-against average/.899 save percentage), especially against the Penguins. He’s had issues against them in the 2012 playoffs with the Flyers and in ‘14 and ‘17 with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

But even if he should struggle against Pittsburgh again, 20-year-old backup Spencer Knight has won all five of his decisions in April and has a 1.75 goals-against average in that time with a .939 save percentage.

Suddenly, even facing the Metro-leading Hurricanes as the seventh seed may feel less daunting than a best-of-seven against Florida. The Canes have split their last 10 games and are dealing with injuries to goalie Frederick Andersen, captain Jordan Staal and forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Similarly, the Penguins may even prefer that long-anticipated battle against the Rangers and goalie Igor Shesterkin in the first round, rather than facing Florida’s high-powered offense with the potential of backup goalie Casey DeSmith in their crease. That’s despite the Rangers winning the last three matchups against the Pens in recent weeks.

Fortunately for the Penguins, they still have five regular-season games remaining to steady the ship and formulate a game plan to best insulate DeSmith should he need to start in the playoffs. And they have a rare stretch of practice time to do it. The team hasn’t played since a 2-1 loss Saturday in Boston. They don’t play again until a rematch with the Bruins Thursday night at PPG Paints Arena.

“We’ve had a pretty tough schedule the last couple of weeks. Hopefully, we’ll be more recovered and take these last couple of games to build up for the playoffs,” winger Rickard Rakell said after the defeat Saturday.

For coach Mike Sullivan, he deems the time off as crucial after the team had slogged through seven games in 12 days

“It gives us an opportunity to get some rest. To recharge our batteries a little bit. Get ready and get excited about finishing the season strong and putting ourselves in the best position for the playoffs,” Sullivan said.

Whatever that position is. Second through fourth in the division? Fourth through eighth in the conference? That’s unclear and has been for quite some time. But now, for the Penguins, beyond momentum and honing the nuances of their game, trying to finish with a strong push to stay as high up in the standings as possible appears to be all the more important and practical than it did just a week ago.

In this week’s “Breakfast With Benz” hockey podcast, Brian Metzer of the Penguins Radio Network joins me to look at the state of the Penguins, Tristan Jarry’s injury, and Thursday’s rematch with the Boston Bruins.

Listen: Tim Benz and Brian Metzer discuss Penguins, Tristan Jarry, Bruins rematch