To pull the upset, Penn State has to disrupt Ohio State’s perfect red-zone offense

Ohio State is halfway to history.

In the last decade, no FBS team has finished a full season, covid-shortened 2020 not included, with a perfect red-zone conversion rate. Some have come close. For example, LSU’s 2019 juggernaut, led by Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, scored on 73 of 75 red-zone trips with a 78.7% red-zone touchdown rate. But this year’s Buckeyes are on pace to surpass even that otherworldly unit.

Ryan Day’s offense, the same one that will challenge Penn State this weekend at Beaver Stadium, has yet to fail in the red zone. Ohio State is the last team in the FBS to have a 100% red-zone conversion rate.

What’s more remarkable is how effective they are at maximizing their trips inside the 20-yard line. In seven games, the Buckeyes have scored 31 touchdowns on 36 red-zone opportunities for an 86.1% conversion rate. That’s second-best nationally to only Mississippi State, which has reached the red zone 12 fewer times.

Surely, Ohio State will slip up at some point. That’s what Penn State is hoping for as it looks to pull off the upset on Saturday afternoon. But this Buckeye offense has the makings of one of the best red-zone offenses in recent memory.

With five regular-season games and at least a bowl to go, it’s more than feasible for Ohio State to hit 70-plus red-zone trips. Only seven teams in the last decade have reached the red zone 70 or more times and came away with at least a 75% touchdown conversion rate. Three of those teams — 2019 LSU, 2018 Clemson and 2013 Florida State — won the national championship. In a couple months, 2022 Ohio State might join them.

That isn’t to say the Nittany Lions have no chance on Saturday.

Penn State’s red-zone defense has been stout under new coordinator Manny Diaz. The Nittany Lions’ 40% touchdown conversion rate allowed is tied for fourth-best in the country, behind only UCF, Illinois and Georgia. Even in the blowout at Michigan, Penn State bent but didn’t break in the first half, holding the Wolverines to three field goals and a touchdown on four red-zone trips in the opening two quarters.

But Penn State head coach James Franklin knows this will be a different test than Michigan or any other offense his players have faced so far.

“They’ve got a good scheme. They’ve got a bunch of weapons. They’ve done a really good job,” Franklin said Wednesday of Ohio State. “When you talk about red-zone offense, when you’re able to run or throw the ball, that’s valuable down there.”

Ohio State’s often overlooked running game, as Franklin mentioned, provides the Buckeyes plenty of flexibility down in close. Of Ohio State’s 31 red-zone touchdowns, 14 have come on the ground. Miyan Williams and, to a lesser extent, TreVeyon Henderson have been battering rams inside 5 yards for the Buckeyes.

But Ohio State’s red-zone success comes down to the precision of C.J. Stroud, the Heisman Trophy front-runner driving Ohio State’s prolific offense.

“People are going to play specific red-zone coverages. But the quarterback makes big-time, accurate throws,” Franklin said. “Whether they’re fade balls, seam balls or corners, whatever it may be, it’s a small window that he’s able to thread the ball into not only with arm talent in terms of strength, but also accuracy.”

It helps having Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, if he’s healthy enough to go even in a limited capacity. That kind of route-running is invaluable when space gets limited near the end zone.

On Saturday, that’s where Joey Porter Jr., Ji’Ayir Brown, Johnny Dixon and company are going to have to stand tall. Stroud and the weapons around him are dangerous anywhere on the field. But in the red-zone, they’ve been downright unstoppable.