Tim Benz: This clear-cut skill has made Paul Skenes an All-Star in just 10 starts

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie pitcher Paul Skenes deserves to be an All-Star based on merit since his promotion to the Major Leagues in May. From an entertainment perspective, he should be the starter in the game as well.

There is one skill in particular that has made Skenes All-Star worthy: his work with men on base.

“I made a comment about it the other day in the dugout,” catcher Joey Bart said on Sunday. “It seems like this guy gets out of every single jam. That’s not easy to do. It’s pretty impressive. He’s just confident. I don’t think anything really speeds up on him. He knows what he’s got is elite, and he trusts it.”

That’s good for Skenes because, as impressive as he had been, it’s not as if he has been entirely unhittable.

Well, except for that second start of his career in Chicago, of course.

Paul Skenes is on pace to strikeout 27 today ...

Six batters, six strikeouts. ???? pic.twitter.com/obSuXLYdeq

— MLB (@MLB) May 17, 2024

On that May afternoon at Wrigley Field, Skenes went six innings without allowing a hit before getting pulled with an 8-0 lead after 100 pitches.

But there are some second-level stats from Skenes that may appear surprisingly pedestrian given his sparkling 5-0 record, 2.12 ERA, and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

When it comes to batting average against on balls in play, Skenes is allowing a .308 clip as opposed to a league average of .289. His hard-hit percentage against is 39.3%, just a tick above the Major League norm of 39.2%.

Similarly, Skenes’ line-drive percentage against is 23.6%, while the league overall is at 23.7%, and his home-run percentage allowed is 3% of plate appearances. The MLB average is at 2.9%.

So, a lot of those numbers from Skenes are pretty mundane. However, once runners do get on against him, it’s a totally different story. That’s when Skenes becomes elite.

With men on base, the league is hitting just .173 against Skenes, with an on-base percentage of .241 and an OPS of .467. Juxtapose that to Skenes’ OPS allowed with the bases empty. It’s at .697.

Skenes has also induced seven double plays.

The numbers get even better with runners in scoring position. In those situations, last year’s No. 1 overall pick has yielded only five hits in 40 plate appearances (36 at-bats) for a batting average against of a meager .139 from big league hitters. Opposing batters with runners in scoring position have an OBP of .200, a batting average on balls in play of .217, and an OPS of .367.

“That’s something that really good pitchers are able to do,” Skenes said of his success with runners on base. “Hitters’ approaches change. Our approaches change in terms of getting them out too. Ultimately, it just comes down to executing in those situations.”

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Keep in mind, those moments in games are when the best hitters in the world are supposedly really bearing down and hunting for RBIs, baserunners are making things chaotic and the margin of error with any wild pitch or passed ball in the dirt advances a runner.

“He doesn’t let the pressure affect him,” reliever Colin Holderman said. “Those situations can get hectic, and it speeds up on you. But he doesn’t let the game speed up. He makes pitches. He knows he is always just one or two pitches away. He gets crucial punchouts. That’s just keeping his heart rate slow and processing what’s going on.”

That effectiveness from Skenes with runners on base has meant that innings have rarely gotten away from him, so games have never gotten away from him. That’s why he has yet to leave a game while trailing in any of his 10 starts so far.

Even when it comes to allowing home runs, six of the seven that Skenes has yielded have come with the bases empty.

“You can turn a run into a rally. But his ability to execute multiple pitches, the fact that he has multiple weapons, allows him to suppress that,” manager Derek Shelton said while announcing Skenes as an All-Star last weekend. “In a couple of those starts, he has managed to put the ball on the ground and get double play balls. He knows how to use his stuff.”

The “stuff” has quickly matured into a polished five-pitch mix that belies his relative lack of Major League experience. It’s something the Milwaukee Brewers will try to deal with when Skenes makes his next start Thursday afternoon.

And it’s something that hopefully the likes of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto will try to deal with in the bottom of the first inning of the All-Star game in Arlington, Texas, on Tuesday night.