Tim Benz: Steelers aren't becoming Pirates (yet). But there was one familiar theme this offseason.

I watched the Pittsburgh Pirates’ season-opening series at Wrigley Field over the weekend, and it got me thinking about the Steelers.

Yikes.

If that’s not an alarming open to any column about the local football team I don’t know what else could be.

Now before all of you “Defend the Terrible Towel” bots run to Twitter, I’m not saying that the 2021 Steelers are going to be the NFL version of the 2021 Pirates.

Yet.

Check back with me on that front sometime around Columbus Day. That’s if we are still allowed to call it Columbus Day by the time mid-October rolls around.

Are we? I lose track of such things these days.

So, to be clear, I’m not yet ready to predict the Steelers will go 4-13 or 5-12 (in the new 17-game season) as I did predict the Pirates would win fewer than 60 games.

But there is a parallel between how we talk about the Pirates every offseason and how we are talking about the Steelers this offseason.

When it came to the Pirates heading into this spring training, as always, anyone who was predicting a record even sniffing 75 wins was doing so with a hermetically sealed batch of caveats.

Generously throwing around the word “if” like it was a certainty, instead of the very definition of qualifying an unknown.

C’mon. You heard the same speech all winter that I did from the Pirates organization, die-hard fans and apologists in the media.

The 2021 Pirates will be better than people say ….

“… if the starting rotation stays healthy.”

“… if Gregory Polanco comes out of his fog.”

“… if Mitch Keller makes that jump we’ve all been waiting for.”

“… if Ke’Bryan Hayes proves to be the star he looked like in 2020.”

“… if the middle infielders can stretch their hot spring training at the plate into the regular season.”

And a few others.

Well, so far, starting pitcher Steven Brault opened the season on the 60-day injured list. Hayes wound up on the 10-day injured list after Game 2 in Chicago.

Polanco is hitting .071. Shortstop Kevin Newman and second baseman Adam Frazier are hitting .214. Keller looked lost in spring training and in his first start.

Aside from that, everything is happening according to plan.

You probably think this is a preemptive shot by me just four games into a 1-3 season, only to make a point.

Maybe it is.

Sure, all those things could still happen, and the Pirates could approach mediocrity. But the point is, it’s a fine line between that “best-case scenario” and “dreadful.” With so many variables in play, you see how tenuous that difference is.

Unfortunately, this offseason for the Steelers, we are doing a lot of the same things.

The Steelers will still be at least a 10- or 11-win team …

“… if Ben Roethlisberger can find the fountain of youth and adopts Matt Canada’s new offense.”

“… if Maurkice Pouncey can be replaced at center by a draft pick, J.C. Hassenauer or B. J. Finney.”

“… if the team is right to trust Chuks Okorafor and Zach Banner at tackle.”

“… if Alex Highsmith is a worthy replacement to Bud Dupree.”

“… if Robert Spillane and Cameron Sutton blossom from capable backups to starting-caliber players.”

“… if Devin Bush comes back from injury and if T.J. Watt never gets hurt.”

“… if they get at least three rookie contributors in the draft that can immediately play if some of those things don’t happen.”

Now, who had more “ifs” there? The Steelers or Pirates? I lost count.

This isn’t unprecedented for the Steelers. We do this exercise for them every year. It’s just that the long list of “ifs” usually comes into a debate about if they’ll make it to the AFC Championship Game.

Not if they’ll ever be capable of winning a playoff game again.

The concerning thing about the Steelers is that all of those “ifs” this year seem to be conversation points about if they’ll be drafting in the top 10 or if they’ll scratch in as the seventh seed in the AFC playoffs.

I’m not ready to make that prediction yet. But I’ll feel better about their chances if …

… I find out Vanderbilt pitcher Kumar Rocker can rush off the edge or if his teammate Jack Leiter has any background playing inside linebacker.

Hey, at least one of them will probably be in Pittsburgh as the Pirates’ No.1 overall draft choice. Maybe they’ll double-dip across the parking lot at Heinz Field for a few years.

Before they split time with the Yankees and Giants anyway.