Tim Benz: How do Pirates evaluate Derek Shelton in vacuum of their own reality?

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday marked the third home opener at PNC Park for manager Derek Shelton.

But it was the first one approaching what he dreamed of having before the word “coronavirus” became part of our everyday vocabulary.

“You know your fans are going to be back,” Shelton said before the game. “We are slowly ticking back to what is normal. This was the expectation I personally had in December of ’19 when I took the job.”

The announced attendance of 34,458 was 3,622 short of a sellout but far better than the pandemic-restricted 7,749 that turned out for the 2021 home opener. Certainly better than playing in front of empty seats and fake crowd noise in July 2020 for his first official home game as manager.

Yes, it was close to the usual Opening Day party on the North Shore. But one thing is still missing from the full experience — and it has been in Pittsburgh since the end of 2015.

Hope.

Not for four or five years from now. But for the upcoming season. None exists for supporters of this team that started the year with a meager $36.8 million payroll.

That’s the one thing Shelton admits he is still waiting to experience in Pittsburgh. A home opener that is charged with optimism. A crowd that not only is looking forward to Opening Day at PNC Park but also the next 80 games that are to follow.

“Yeah. My mind goes there sometimes,” Shelton admitted. “I live in the now and don’t get too far ahead of myself at any point. But with what we are doing and how we are doing it … there should be some excitement about what we are doing.”

In a way, Shelton has the toughest job in Pittsburgh. How is he supposed to manage this ragtag roster to any sort of success?

But in a different sense, is he ever really blamed for anything? Are there any Pirates fans out there diligently scrutinizing Shelton’s managerial performance on a game-to-game basis and holding him accountable for what happens on the field over the swath of 162 games?

Especially since the Pirates rely so heavily on player development and analytics, a lot of the daily lineup decisions and pitching utilization are being funneled through organizational planning more so than managerial feel on game days.

Sure, maybe Shelton is guilty of a debatable pitching change or a strange defensive substitution. But what manager doesn’t get second-guessed in Major League Baseball? For Shelton, though, he’s managing a club that had the second-most losses in the National League last year (101) and the most in all of baseball (41) in the pandemic-shortened campaign of 2020.

Not only that, but it also is a club that had the worst run differential in the NL in each of his first two seasons. So the players don’t score enough runs, and they don’t prevent the other team from scoring often enough. And the front office never has seemed particularly interested in giving him enough players to remedy those situations.

At least not until the Pirates’ allegedly blossoming farm talent pumps through the minor leagues. So how is Shelton to be evaluated and critiqued by his bosses in the front office? Let alone the fans and media who still care enough to ponder that question.

“Shelty’s job is to create an environment where improvement is happening every day,” general manager Ben Cherington said of Shelton on Tuesday. “Some of that is choosing the people who are in that environment, in terms of our staff. Some of it is creating a culture where people are excited to work every day and know they are going to have the resources and feedback they need to keep getting better. … He is totally invested in that with us.”

As far as the players go, they seem to have faith in Shelton to deliver on that task.

“He’s great for us,” outfielder Bryan Reynolds said. “Super laid back. (He) lets us be ourselves out there. It helps the young guys coming up (from the minors). They feel comfortable. That’s just going to help in the long run.”

Infielder Kevin Newman says Shelton’s best contribution to the team might be what fans can’t see in the clubhouse on a daily basis: how he’s able to keep spirits up whenever inevitable extended losing streaks take hold of this perpetually rebuilding squad.

“He’s so open and player-centric that he makes it easy to go have a conversation and say, ‘Where can I get better? Where should I get better?’ You can always go to him with that sort of stuff,” Newman said.

For all the praise Shelton seems to get and all the hype about the talent the Pirates are cultivating in the farm system, one has to wonder if Shelton will be retained long enough to see it manifest. He went 80-142 in his first two seasons, a winning percentage of .360.

Jim Leyland won 44.4% of his games over his first two years before getting above .500 in 1988. Clint Hurdle was at 46.6% his first two years before getting over .500 and securing a wild-card berth in 2013.

Shelton’s Pirates aren’t that far along on the development curve.

Looking at other Pirates managers in the PNC Park era who had to deal with similar circumstances, Lloyd McClendon was given five years. Jim Tracy got two. John Russell lasted three. Their winning percentages were .430, .417 and .384, respectively.

Beyond wins and losses, whatever analysis Cherington is using to judge Shelton, outwardly, he seems content. As does Shelton with the backing he is getting to do the job under the payroll constraints that exist.

“The support I’ve gotten since Day 1 in terms of everything we’ve done, the decisions we’ve made, I’ve been a part of it. And in agreement with it,” Shelton said. “The latitude I have continues to grow. I’m excited about the direction we are going in and how we are doing it.”

The truth is, Shelton could be a guy who possesses the very best traits of Hurdle, Leyland and Chuck Tanner. Yet with the team he manages, we’d never know it.

Or he could be worse than whatever combination of Tracy, Russell and McClendon you could imagine. How would we tell? To be fair to those guys, how did we ever really know watching them manage either?

Like Shelton himself, those who still follow the team with passion are hoping to see an Opening Day when the roster is competitive enough to reveal those answers. For Shelton’s sake, hopefully, his best attributes will be revealed at that point.

If such a day ever comes.