If it feels like the trade speculation surrounding Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins has dragged on for a long time, that’s because it has.
The Penguins first seemed to crop up as a potential trade target for the Norris Trophy-winning defenseman at the outset of free agency on July 1. But he’s still there. And fans in Pittsburgh and Carolina — the other perceived finalist for his services — are still waiting for a resolution.
On Wednesday’s “Breakfast With Benz” podcast, I was joined by Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now and “NBC Sharks” for NBC Sports California. I asked him to rank the likelihood of the four possible outcomes for Karlsson’s future. They are:
1. He goes to Pittsburgh
2. He goes to Carolina
3. He stays in San Jose
4. He winds up with another team that’s not yet known by the public
“I still think it will be Karlsson to the Penguins,” Peng said. “Because, again, I think the Penguins are the most motivated to make a deal happen. It just maybe takes a little more flexibility from the Penguins and the Sharks to make it happen,” Peng said. “After that, I’ll go with the Hurricanes. Then I’ll go with the other team. Then, finally, Karlsson with the Sharks to start the season. My guess is that he will not be in San Jose to start the season.”
That flexibility most likely lies on the sticking point of how much of Karlsson’s salary San Jose is willing to keep in the deal. Earlier in the week, Elliotte Friedman suggested that was the case on the NHL Network, and Peng says that’s likely true.
“That seems like the big thing,” Peng said. “Mike Grier came out and said right from the draft, ‘We’re not going to retain 50%.’ You would think that the more you retain, the more that you get. But it also is the owner having to pay Karlsson a significant amount of money to play for somebody else, which can never sit well. I think we’re sort of at this game of chicken. We’re just going to kind of see who buckles first.”
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Although the execution of that happening may be less about what San Jose is able to retain and more about how much space the Penguins are going to be able to open up.
“Certainly for the Penguins, they need to get rid of a lot of salary, in terms of (Jeff) Petry and (Mikael) Granlund to even think about making this work. So if the Sharks aren’t interested in those players, … then you might need a third team to reroute (salary). That’s a definite possibility.”
So finding a third team to spin this deal may be crucial. However, worrying about another team besides Carolina doesn’t seem to be in the cards.
“I haven’t heard of another team,” Peng said. “Seattle has the cap space. But I was told ‘doubtful’ on Seattle. The way that they seem to be structuring their team is all low-salary players. I think their highest-paid AAV player right now might be (goalie Philipp) Grubauer (at $5.9 million). … Maybe if the Sharks would retain more, that’ll open up the market more. I think that’s a big part of it.”
Despite how long the process has dragged and how complicated it might be to move a player like Karlsson with a $11.5 million hit, Peng is convinced San Jose will get a trade done.
“I do believe a trade will get done at least before a training camp,” Peng said. “I believe that both sides are motivated to make a deal. That means the Sharks and Erik Karlsson. And I think that, eventually, someone’s going to let go a little bit.”
Also in the podcast, Peng discusses how the Hurricanes factor into the equation, whether there is an issue with Karlsson reuniting in Carolina with Brent Burns, and whether Karlsson would elevate the Penguins into being a significant contender in the Eastern Conference.
