Pirates will look to upgrade offense that struggled to score runs last season

The 2019 Pittsburgh Pirates provided a fine example of new-age baseball thinking that batting average is an overrated statistic.

The Pirates hit .265, which was sixth in the major leagues. Yet they had a 69-93 record and finished last in the National League Central for the first time since 2010.

The offense’s shortcomings showed up in the other major categories. The Pirates were 18th in on-base percentage (.420), tied for 20th in runs (4.68 a game average), 22nd in slugging percentage (.420) and 27th in home runs (163).

No wonder Ben Cherington said upgrading the offense is his top priority during his first offseason as the Pirates general manager now that he has a manager and most of the coaching staff in place.

It will be interesting to see where Cherington upgrades the lineup. Using the statistics OPS-plus, most of the eight projected starters for 2020 pretty much were in line with or above the major league average at their positions.

OPS-plus takes a player’s on-base plus slugging percentage and normalizes the number across the entire major leagues, accounting for external factors like ballparks. It then adjusts so a score of 100 is league average, and 110 is 10% better than the league average and 90 is 10% worse than the league average.

For example, first baseman Josh Bell led the Pirates last season with a .936 OPS, which worked out to an OPS-plus of 143. That means Bell was 43% better than league average.

Overall, major league first baseman had a 111 OPS-plus in 2019, so Bell easily was better than the average player at his position.

Four other projected starters also were better than the league average at their positions: left fielder Bryan Reynolds (131-108), center fielder Starling Marte (120-97), shortstop Kevin Newman (111-103) and second baseman Adam Frazier (99-95).

Jacob Stallings was close. He had an 87 OPS-plus, and the league average for catchers was 90.

The only two projected starters who were off the mark were third baseman Colin Moran (97-110) and right fielder Gregory Polanco (90-111).

Polanco, though, is not a normal case because he did not have a normal season. He was limited to 42 games because of complications during his rehab from shoulder surgery.

Yet his career 100 OPS-plus suggests Polanco hasn’t produced at the level expected of an average right fielder.

Cherington faces a conundrum with Polanco. The 28-year-old has two guaranteed years and $20.2 million left on his five-year, $35-million contract. If Cherington was still the Boston Red Sox’s GM, he could write off Polanco’s contract as a sunk cost. However, $20.2 million is a lot of money for a franchise that runs its player payroll on a shoestring budget.

Furthermore, Polanco has no trade value because of the shoulder issue.

Moran’s time with the Pirates is running out regardless if he is still with the team Opening Day. Prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes is the third baseman of the future, which could be as soon as midseason.

A broken right index finger slowed Hayes last season at Triple-A Indianapolis when he hit .265/.336/.415 with 10 home runs in 110 games. Hayes is just 22 and plays a Gold Glove-caliber third base, and scouts believe he will become an above-average hitter in the major leagues.

If Cherington doesn’t want to ride out the hot corner with Moran for a least part of 2020, there are options in free agency that wouldn’t necessarily be cost-prohibitive.

One is Todd Frazier, who hit .251/.329/.443 with 21 home runs for the New York Mets last season for a 106 OPS-plus. The 33-year-old also could provide a needed veteran presence in a clubhouse that turned chaotic after the All-Star break last season.

Another possibility is Starlin Castro, who hit .270/.300/.426 with 22 home runs for the Miami Marlins while playing in all 162 games for a 98 OPS. Though his career has veered off the path to superstardom, Castro is durable and seemingly would be an upgrade over Moran.