Penguins Predictions: Can Jake Guentzel reach 40-goal mark again?

Last year at this time, Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel had a very clear goal in mind.

He was fresh off a red-hot playoff performance that saw him score 10 goals in 12 games. On the heels of a 13-goal output in the playoffs the year before that, Guentzel was already establishing himself as the type of player the Penguins could count on to score big goals in big games.

But he wanted to be more than that. He wanted to be a player the Penguins could count on to score night in and night out. Consistency was what he sought.

“Show you can do it for a full year,” Guentzel said in training camp. “I think that’s the biggest thing.”

Guentzel reached his goal emphatically.

He played in all 82 games. He had only one stretch — seven games in late October and early November — that could have been described as a goal drought. He didn’t go more than two games without hitting the scoresheet all year long.

When all was said and done, he became the fourth Penguins player since the 2004-05 lockout to crack the 40-goal mark.

THE QUESTION

Will the Penguins have a 40-goal scorer this season?

MULTIPLE CHOICE

A. Yes, Guentzel

There are no good reasons to predict Guentzel’s goal total will regress. He’s 24, so he’s probably still growing as a player. He’ll still be stapled to Sidney Crosby’s hip at even strength. His shooting percentage was a little high at 17.6%, but only slightly higher than his career average of 16.3%. His 227 shots led the team, but that’s hardly a massive total. It ranked 39th in the league. Shooting percentage goes down a little, shot total goes up a little and Guentzel’s got himself another 40-goal season.

B. Yes, Crosby

A 40-goal season might seem like a bit much of ask of Crosby at age 32, but he has hit the 35-goal mark in three of his last four seasons and led the league with 44 just three years ago. His shooting percentage has topped 17% three times in his career. Why not a fourth?

C. Yes, Evgeni Malkin

Malkin has cracked the 40-goal mark three times in his career, including 42 just two years ago. With Phil Kessel gone, Malkin will be breaking in a new winger, most likely Alex Galchenyuk. Who’s to say that won’t give Malkin a spark at age 33? There’s little doubt he’ll be motivated to bounce back from a subpar season by his standards.

D. Yes, Alex Galchenyuk

This is probably a stretch, since Galchenyuk averages about 18 goals per season and topped out at 30 with Montreal in 2015-16, but he’s never played with a center as dynamic as Malkin before. There will be some shots to be taken on the power play with Kessel gone, and the reputation of Galchenyuk’s one-timer precedes him.

D. No

In the last 15 years, the Penguins have had significantly more seasons without a 40-goal scorer (nine) than with one (six). Of the 20 players who have scored at least 40 goals in a season in Penguins history, only eight did it more than once. That doesn’t bode well for Guentzel. Crosby and Malkin are beyond the age where players normally crack the 40-goal mark. Add it all up and goal scoring will probably have to be a group effort for the Penguins this season.

THE PREDICTION

D. No

The offseason motto for the Penguins has been “younger, faster and harder to play against.” While a 40-goal scorer is certainly very hard to play against, that’s not what the expression means. Penguins forwards will be expected to play a more conscientious game. Sometimes that leads to a 40-goal season, but usually it doesn’t.

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