Madden Monday: Excitement over Oneil Cruz is one thing. Anointing him Rookie of the Year is another

In this week’s “Madden Monday” podcast, Mark Madden of 105.9 The X and TribLIVE wants to distinguish between the prospect of what Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz can be and his current production.

In other words, let’s appreciate the difference between saying, “This Cruz kid is going to be really good someday,” and saying, “Give him Rookie of the Year right now.”

Mainly because, for all the hype Cruz has gotten since he was called up 14 games ago, he’s only hitting .204 with 19 strikeouts, two walks and an on-base percentage of .232.

“I don’t think Oneil Cruz is a bad player. He is certainly a talented prospect,” Madden said. “But this overreaction to every single good moment since he came up from the minors … I saw somebody say Oneil Cruz is a unicorn. Well, he’d be better off taking his horn and using it for a bat (instead of) whatever he is using now. Because he is only hitting .204.”

That said, Cruz is second on the odds board at BetRivers.com when it comes to National League Rookie of the Year betting at +475. That’s tied with Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Strider and behind the betting favorite, Atlanta outfielder Michael Harris II.

To Madden’s point, though, as much as popular opinion, those betting lines are often influenced by hype and future forecasting about how the money is coming in as opposed to what a player’s stats may be saying.

“Those who think he is the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year are off their rockers. At least according to the sample size to date. And, for an award that depends on this year and this year only, all that matters is the sample size to date,” Madden said.

I think Cruz is a tremendous prospect with All-Star potential. He brings elements beyond just stats to the game. Raw power. Physical tools. Excitement on the base paths. A cannon for an arm.

But I do see where Madden is coming from. Every time Cruz uncorks a 96-miles-per-hour throw to first base or hits a ball 112 mph off the bat, there seems to be a contest among every Pirates fan and Pittsburgh media member to see who can send out the most fawning, gushy tweet possible.

Yet when Cruz goes 0 for 4 with two strikeouts and three men left on base (as he did during a 2-0 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday), no one tends to say much. Unless it’s “Hey, did you see that throw to first base? How about that arm, huh?”

“People are now saying getting on base doesn’t matter because he barely walks. It took him 45 big league plate appearances before his first base on balls. We can’t just change the stats to make the guy we like look good. Getting on base matters,” Madden said.

Madden’s point isn’t to tamp down people’s enthusiasm about Cruz. It’s good to get excited about something as a Pirates fan. Over something anyway.

Anything.

Finally.

But dialing back the hyperbole may be in order.

It’s OK to go from energetic buzz over Cruz being in Pittsburgh to presuming a Rookie of the Year trophy is on the way.

“It’s the same with all the Pirates,” Madden said. “Look at Jack Suwinski. He’s hitting close to the Mendoza Line, as well (.221). They’ve got all these young players that the fans are going nuts to praise. But all they are doing is having small victories and a lot of losses and a lot of bad performances as individuals. That’s what the Suwinski’s and the Cruz’s and all those guys are posting if you bother to look past the hype.”

Also, during the podcast, Madden and I look at the upcoming Yankees series at PNC Park. We kick around a Steelers trade rumor. We discuss the Penguins offseason. And we try to make sense of conference realignment in college football.

Listen: Tim Benz and Mark Madden discuss the hype around Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz