John Steigerwald: Gerrit Cole situation a sobering reminder for Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are excited about having a new general manager and a new manager. Maybe some fans are, too.

Meanwhile, the New York Yankees are the favorites to sign Gerrit Cole as a free agent. According to the New York Post, it’ll be a shock if they don’t. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has been given the OK to offer him a record amount of money — probably more than $40 million a year — even if it puts the team over the luxury-tax threshold.

For the Pirates, it’s their yearly reminder they are second-class citizens in their sport. ‘Tis the season to be jolly if your major league team is in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston and maybe Philadelphia.

The smart money is on the Yankees to get Cole, but the Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Angels and Phillies are also said to be ready to pay if he turns them down.

The Pirates have billboards all around town trying to sell season tickets. New managers don’t sell season tickets. Big-ticket free agents do.

It’s an old story, and it’s not going to change.

If MLB had a salary cap, Cole, who could be this generation’s Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver or Nolan Ryan, would have stayed with the Pirates the way Ben Roethlisberger stayed with the Steelers and Sidney Crosby stayed with the Penguins.

Can you imagine the Penguins trying to sell season tickets with a new coach after losing Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to the New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers?

More and more local media voices have begun to buy and sell the theory the Pirates could compete for a championship if only owner Bob Nutting would increase his payroll.

Nutting is the smart one. He knows about the correlation between payroll and winning, and he knows that increasing his payroll from $70 million to $120 million would not increase his chances of making it to the World Series enough to make that gamble.

In August, Craig Edwards of Fangraphs.com, who does a better job than anybody when it comes to figuring this stuff out, used a payroll of $140 million as an example, and here’s what he came up with:

“Over the last four years, there are seven franchises that have continually fielded very good teams. Six of those seven have had above-average payrolls, and five of those teams are among the top six spenders in the game. There are 17 teams that have averaged under $140 million in payroll over the last four seasons. Two of those teams were good, another eight were in the 76-86 win range, and seven teams were bad-to-terrible during those years. Of the 13 teams with payrolls above $140 million, five were good, seven were in that 76-86 win-range, and only the Tigers were awful.”

Edwards also points out there is a direct correlation between franchise value and winning.

“The most valuable franchises in the sport comprise four of the six top spots when it comes to wins over the last four years.”

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Who’s No. 1?

Did you happen to notice the guy who had to beg for a tryout after going undrafted and unsigned coming out of college last summer outplayed the guy who was the No. 1 overall pick?

That’s what the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Devlin Hodges did in Arizona on Sunday. He had as many incompletions as Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had interceptions: three.

In Murray’s defense, he was playing against a much better defense, but Hodges has less to prove every week and was the best quarterback on the field. He made great throws when he had to, one on a touchdown to Diontae Johnson (another rookie) and another to Johnson off a scramble to his left on third-and-13 with under five minutes left in the game.

Hodges was 16 for 19 for 152 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions.

Murray was 20 for 30 for 194 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Hodges also ran for 34 yards to Murray’s 2 yards on six carries.

Up in Cleveland, the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, Baker Mayfield, was 11 for 24 for 192 yards, no TDs and two interceptions in the Browns’ win over the Bengals.

And, oh, by the way, Hodges also had a much better day than Tom Brady, who was playing in the NFL when he was in diapers.

The competition gets a lot tougher next week when the Bills come to town.

Nobody should be surprised if he beats them, too.