How Penn State can reach the Rose, Orange or Cotton Bowl

When the College Football Playoff committee released its updated rankings Tuesday, the Nittany Lions were dealt a blow to their New Year’s Six hopes.

Tennessee slid only to No. 10 in the CFP rankings after a 25-point loss to South Carolina. The Volunteers, who have wins over LSU and Alabama, not only lost the game, but lost quarterback Hendon Hooker to a season-ending ACL injury. Still, Penn State didn’t move up in the top 25, remaining at No. 11.

That matters a great deal to the Nittany Lions’ New Year’s Six bowl aspirations, should they beat Michigan State on Saturday and finish the regular season with a 10-2 mark.

As things stand, Georgia, the winner of this weekend’s Ohio State-Michigan game and TCU and USC, if they all win out, will reach the four-team playoff. The loser of Ohio State-Michigan would go to the Rose Bowl to face a Pac-12 team, leaving the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl as theoretical possibilities for Penn State.

However, the SEC currently has a stranglehold on the Orange and Cotton bowls. LSU, sitting there at No. 5, seems destined for the Sugar Bowl (SEC vs. Big 12). Alabama, a couple spots behind at No. 7, is projected for the Orange Bowl (ACC vs. highest-ranked SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame). And Tennessee is slated to take a spot in the Cotton Bowl (at-large vs. highest-ranked Group of Five champion).

If this holds, Penn State would miss out on the New Year’s Six and likely land in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, squaring off with an SEC team, probably No. 20 Ole Miss.

That’s nothing to scoff at or get down in the dumps about. Surely traveling fans dealing with the cold across the commonwealth wouldn’t mind sunny and 75. But there’s a level of prestige and national exposure that comes with the New Year’s Six, and it would be a nice cap to Penn State’s bounce-back season by securing a berth.

Fortunately, there’s still football left to be played. Here is the Nittany Lions’ New Year’s Six rooting guide for this weekend’s slate and conference championship week.

ORANGE / COTTON BOWL

Saturday, Nov. 26

Auburn at No. 8 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS)

No. 5 LSU at Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN)

No. 10 Tennessee at Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Saturday, Dec. 3

No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Georgia (4 p.m., CBS)

The Nittany Lions want Alabama, LSU and/or Tennessee to lose. If the Crimson Tide and Volunteers are upset by Auburn and Vandy, they would easily drop out of the top 10. And even if LSU somehow stayed in front of Penn State after losing to A&M, surely a fourth loss in the SEC title would do the trick.

Really, only one of those three have to go down to open up a NY6 slot. Tennessee losing would likely place Penn State in the Cotton Bowl against a G5 team like Tulane, Cincinnati or UCF. Losses by both Tennessee and Alabama would likely put the Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl against Clemson or North Carolina.

Even if none of those SEC teams fall this weekend — Alabama, Tennessee and LSU are favored by 22, 14 and 10 points, respectively — there’s still hope that LSU could drop behind Penn State with a blowout loss to Georgia in the SEC championship. Usually, the committee doesn’t penalize teams for making their conference title game. But if Georgia beat LSU, say, 48-0, it would be an outside possibility.

ROSE BOWL

Saturday, Nov. 26

South Carolina at No. 8 Clemson (Noon, ABC)

Iowa State at No. 4 TCU (4 p.m., FOX)

No. 15 Notre Dame at No. 6 USC (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Friday, Dec. 2

No. 6 USC vs. No. 9 Oregon/No. 12 Washington (8 p.m., FOX)

Saturday Dec. 3

No. 4 TCU vs. No. 12 Kansas State/No. 23 Texas (Noon, ABC)

No. 5 LSU vs. No. 1 Georgia (4 p.m., CBS)

No. 2 Ohio State/No. 3 Michigan vs. Big Ten West champion (8 p.m., FOX)

No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 17 North Carolina (8 p.m., ABC)

In order to reach the Rose Bowl, Penn State should root for both Ohio State and Michigan to reach the CFP. And oddly enough, it feels like there’s a better chance of that happening than the SEC coughing up its spots in the Orange and Cotton.

Two of four CFP spots are all but locked up: Georgia and the winner of Ohio State-Michigan. But TCU hosts a frisky Iowa State and faces Kansas State or Texas in the Big 12 title. USC has to beat Notre Dame before squaring off with one of the Pac-12′s ranked teams. LSU has to upset Georgia. And Clemson has to win against South Carolina and North Carolina and do so in convincing fashion to have a fighter’s chance.

Then, there’s the loser between Ohio State-Michigan. Penn State should be pulling for Michigan. Ohio State’s 11-1 resume with a win over Notre Dame is stronger than that of an 11-1 Michigan. The Buckeyes would also have the Notre Dame win as a trump card over Clemson, which lost by 21 to the Fighting Irish, if it came to that.

So, Georgia and the winner of Ohio State-Michigan get in. As long as LSU loses to the Bulldogs, either TCU or USC falls and Clemson doesn’t take a massive jump, the loser of Ohio State-Michigan ought to be in, too. That would gift Penn State a trip to the Rose Bowl, where it’d play Oregon, Washington or Utah.

It seems like a lot has to happen for the Nittany Lions to land in the NY6. But the picture is clearer than you’d think — and crazier things have happened in college football.