How long can the Pirates sustain their competitive start? Here are 3 angles to consider

I can’t think of any Pirates fan — or Pittsburgh media member (this one included) — who thought this edition of the team could be at .500 by the end of April.

For a team expected to lose at least 100 games, going 12-12 to begin 2021 is applause-worthy for manager Derek Shelton and the players who have succeeded so far.

“We are pushing the throttle on people,” Shelton said Wednesday. “We continue to play hard. They are giving themselves an identity. And I’m adapting around it. Which is awesome. That’s the way we want it to be.”

Unfortunately for the Pirates, as has almost always been the case over the past three decades or so, early season success comes with an asterisk or two.

Or, in this case, three.

*How sustainable is winning?

*Who is contributing the most to the wins?

*How long will the guys who are helping the team win actually stick around?

That last point is easy to answer. The trade deadline.

Per the usual Pirates discourse, for as much conversation as there has been about how great it is that the franchise has been competitive so far, there’s just as much discussion about how great it is that the individuals who are performing the best are heightening their trade stock.

Guys such as closer Rich Rodriguez and his 0.00 ERA. Adam Frazier and his .301 batting average. Colin Moran and his team-best 17 RBIs and career-high .844 OPS.

The potential that all those guys may be traded while they are hot in advance of the July trade deadline dents the sustainability angle, too. Not to mention, how long can you count on the likes of J.T. Brubaker twirling a 2.01 ERA? Or Tyler Anderson yielding just three earned runs over a 16-inning stretch? Or the bullpen being fourth best in Major League Baseball when it comes to batting average against and WHIP?

Then there is the unfortunate reality that for as happy as we should all be with the break-even start, many of the players who really might be part of the long-term future haven’t been part of the upward trend.

Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has barely played due to a wrist injury. Shortstop Kevin Newman is hitting .190. Mitch Keller looks lost on the mound. And infielder Cole Tucker isn’t back up with the big league club yet.

Keller is of particular concern. His ERA is 8.20. He has yet to pitch into the sixth inning through any of his five starts. And, on Wednesday, he plodded through five walks and 83 pitches en route to allowing four earned runs in 2⅓ innings in a 9-6 loss to the Kansas City Royals.

Shelton cited two specific problems with Keller’s latest outing. First of all, his put-away pitches ahead in the count weren’t effective versus the Royals. Thus leading to an ability for their hitters to extend at-bats, elevate Keller’s pitch count and accelerate his departure.

That and a general lack of fastball command.

“We have to continue to get the fastball in the zone. In the starts that he has been effective, the fastball is in the zone. (Thursday) he just wasn’t in the zone,” Shelton said.

To make matters worse, Keller’s next scheduled start is in San Diego Tuesday against a Padres team that slapped him around to the tune of 12 base runners and seven runs in 3½ innings.

Kevin Gorman covers the Pirates for TribLive. He joins me for Friday’s “Breakfast With Benz” podcast. We discuss Keller’s struggles, the Pirates’ efforts to break even so far, and the prospect of how long this competitive performance can continue.