Historically bad Pirates season could be start of model that worked for winning MLB teams

In a shortened season played amid pandemic and, perhaps mercifully, before an empty PNC Park, the sinking ship that is the Pittsburgh Pirates hit rock bottom on the Allegheny River.

The Pirates won only 19 of 60 games for the worst record in baseball and fifth-worst winning percentage (.317) in franchise history. What’s worse, combined with their 69 wins last year, the Pirates’ 88 victories over 222 games still wouldn’t have qualified for the 2019 postseason.

To find teams that fared worse than this outfit requires a time machine, as three of the four worst played as the Pittsburgh Alleghenys in the late 1800s. A more modern comparison is the 1952 Pirates, whose 42-112-1 (.273) finish prompted general manager Branch Rickey to trade Hall of Fame slugger Ralph Kiner the following June in a 10-player deal that brought back six players and $150,000 cash, proof chairman Bob Nutting has predecessors to the Pirates’ penny-pinching on payroll.

But even that was almost seven decades ago. No wonder Pirates general manager Ben Cherington, hired last November, said he wasn’t going to “put a lot of energy into trying to figure out the historical part of it.”

“I think we know that we have to get better,” Cherington said. “I think we are honest about where we are, areas where we need to improve on in order to start winning more games. That’s where our focus is. I would just be repeating things that we’ve already said in terms of how we’re going to do that. But we need to focus on that, and a big part of that will be not just adding players, young players and talent, but developing those players.

“From a fan perspective, as a fan myself, that’s what I would be connected to. That’s what I hope our fans could connect to, being part of that journey, part of that process as we build this team.”

The anniversaries of their 1979 and 1960 World Series champions are but distant memories to a frustrated fan base. Attendance dropped from a record 2,498,596 in 2015 — when the Pirates won 98 games but lost to the Chicago Cubs in a wild-card game before a crowd of 40,889 at PNC Park — to 1,491,439 (an average of 18,413 a game) last season.

The city’s baseball fans felt a disconnect when the Pirates traded former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and ace pitcher Gerrit Cole in January 2018 and again when they sent center fielder Starling Marte to Arizona for three prospects this past January. The trade for pitcher Chris Archer has added to their angst, as pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows have played starring roles for the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Pirates were projected to lose 100-plus games before baseball was shut down, so there was little hope for this season despite MLB expanding the playoffs from 10 teams to 16. The other four teams in the National League Central qualified, as did three of five American League Central opponents. All seven were eliminated in the wild-card round.

As difficult as it is to digest the 2020 season, it’s also hard to quantify. The Pirates played only a fraction of a full season but went 9-21 in their first 30 games and 10-20 in their last 30. They endured losing streaks of seven and eight games and lost 13 of 14 in one stretch. Their longest winning streak? Three games.

The Pirates were shut out six times, including a no-hitter by Lucas Giolito of the Chicago White Sox on Aug. 25. They went 3-17 (.150) in 20 interleague games against the American League Central division, 16-24 (.400) against NL Central opponents. They lost 15 by one run and five in extra innings. All of their wins came against playoff teams.

“Baseball’s a hard sport. It’s not like a math equation, where if you figure out the right formula you’re going to get the same result every time,” Pirates starting pitcher Joe Musgrove said. “There’s human error. There’s all different kind of elements that come into play. You try to find something consistent that works for you, something that you can fall back on, and you just try to ride the waves, man. They come and they go. I know we shot ourselves in the foot in quite a few of those games and didn’t give ourselves a chance to come out on top. But we’re very close to having this season turn out a lot different.”

Over a full 162-game season, the Pirates would have been on pace to win 51 games, their fewest since 1917. More appropriate comparisons might be to the 1985 Pirates, who finished 57-104 (.354), and the 2010 Pirates (57-105, .352), two of their worst teams in modern history. Those teams reversed their fortunes by trading off their best players for promising prospects. The 1985 Pirates built around Barry Bonds, traded Jose DeLeon for Bobby Bonilla, Rich Reuschel for Doug Drabek and Tony Pena for Andy Van Slyke, Mike LaValliere and Mike Dunne and added Jay Bell in a trade. They won three consecutive NL East Division titles from 1990-92.

The 2010 Pirates built around first-round picks McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Cole, promoted prospects Marte and Gregory Polanco and signed free agent Russell Martin. They ended a two decades of losing seasons, averaging 93 wins a season and qualifying as a wild card from 2013-15.

Those rebuilds, however, took years and required some unpopular trades. The Pirates are positioned for the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, which would give them the opportunity to draft a difference maker.

“As long as the system continues as it has, you have to do the model that has worked for so many teams,” said MLB analyst Jim Bowden, who served as general manager of the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals and now works for CBS Sports and Sirius XM’s MLB Radio Network and writes for The Athletic.

“It’s a very simple model that the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and Washington Nationals used to win World Series. I hate to use the word ‘tank,’ but let’s be realistic. That’s what works. It’s seven years of pain, where you pick at the top of the draft and then have a nucleus that can win for a long time. That’s what works right now. I don’t know that there’s any quicker, faster way.”

Where one MLB scout suggested that the Pirates “tear it down to the studs,” Bowden believes the Pirates already did that by trading McCutchen, Cole and Marte. MLB.com ranks their farm system No. 16 in baseball.

“It is torn down to the studs,” Bowden said. “Look at the record. That’s who you are, like it or not. It’s who you were last year. It’s who you are this year. Wherever you are, it’s about building. You’ve got to develop guys who are going to be stars the next two or three years, then move them during the peak to keep adding players. It’s not just a matter of getting quality. You need quantity of quality.”

Pirates manager Derek Shelton saw signs of progress in September, when third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes won NL Rookie of the Month honors and a healthy starting rotation led by Mitch Keller performed well over the final two weeks. But Cherington sent a strong message in mid-September when he said that the Pirates “need great players, at every position.”

“That was refreshing,” the MLB scout said. “That was a window into his general manager’s soul, saying that they didn’t have enough to win right now. There was an underlying message that this guy might do what needs to be done. … They’re all expendable. I don’t think they’re going to win in 2021, so you might as well figure out what’s the marketplace for these guys. It comes down to knowing who you are as an organization. You have to be all-in on your position. You can’t go into it half-pregnant. You’re either in win-now mode or building mode, one of the two.”

Christopher Horner | Tribune-Review

Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes throws to first base during a game against the Cubs on Sept. 1, 2020, at PNC Park.

They could free up salary by allowing closer Keone Kela to leave as a free agent and buying out the final year of starting pitcher Chris Archer’s contract for $250,000 rather than pay his full $11 million option for 2021. But the bigger moves, Bowden believes, will be trading popular players such as first baseman Josh Bell, second baseman Adam Frazier and Musgrove for multiple high-ceiling prospects to rebuild the farm system and signing veteran free agents who can be dealt for prospects at the trade deadline.

That Hayes quickly became the Pirates’ best player and Keller their top pitcher this season was promising and troubling. Bell followed an All-Star season in which he had 37 homers and 116 RBIs by batting .226 with eight homers and 22 RBIs. After finishing fifth in rookie of the year voting last year, outfielder Bryan Reynolds saw his batting average drop from .314 to .189 this season. The Pirates ranked at or near the bottom of in MLB in almost every team offensive category.

Perhaps the worst part of their historically bad season is it drew mostly indifference from a disillusioned fan base, one the Pirates hope to recapture when baseball returns next year.

“I feel like that’s just part of the game: You want to watch a show that’s entertaining. You want to watch a level of baseball that you can get behind and support. At times we’ve fallen short of that,” Bell said. “I think we all aspire to be the team that day in, day out is extremely entertaining, always giving ourselves a chance to win, always playing with that edge, like your hair’s on fire, that grit that Pittsburgh loves. …

“I understand what this atmosphere can be like in Pittsburgh. I understand the frustrations the last few years. I feel like right now we’re at the very bottom of where we want to be. It’s definitely going to be a work in progress climbing out of this hole that we put ourselves in. But it’s going to make it feel all that much more better, all that more exciting whenever we bring back winning baseball.”