5 big 2020 Pirates questions: Can the Pirates hit their way to relevance?

The Pirates are ramping up to their 60-game sprint of a season at PNC Park’s “Spring Training 2.0.”

The Major League Baseball schedule starts for the Pirates on Friday, July 24 in St. Louis.

So each day this week at “Breakfast With Benz,” we will be examining the five most pressing questions facing the team.

Monday’s question: Can the Pirates hit their way into contention for a short season and overcome their questionable pitching?

Monday’s answer: Unlikely.

But if they contend, that’s the only way for them to do it.

Last week, Pirates manager Derek Shelton made the comment that his pitching was ahead of the hitting to start the rebooted spring training.

“That’s par for the course when you’re coming into spring training or starting up seeing live pitchers again,” outfielder Bryan Reynolds said Friday. “The pitchers are going to be ahead of the hitters. That’s just how it is. It’s going to take a while to get your eyes back and get timing and rhythm back. Our pitchers have all looked good.”

On the surface, that may seem concerning. After all, the Pirates have a wider net of hitters with some recent success on this team as opposed to their pitchers.

Shelton doesn’t see it that way.

“Pitchers can work on things in a bullpen setting where it is a little bit more intense,” Shelton said last week. “With hitters, it’s watching the arm. Watching how the leg moves, in terms of the wind up to make sure you get the movement of getting ready to hit. You can do velocity stuff. Which is fine for the action of the barrel getting to the ball. But the timing. That’s why hitters are always behind when certain things start.”

And if the Pirates pitchers are holding their own to start the simulated games at PNC Park, that’s a good thing. Because perhaps that’s an indication they’ll lighten the load on the Pirates bats a bit more than I anticipated.

Because I’m expecting that burden to be awfully heavy for the Pirates hitters.

As a pitching staff, the Pirates team ERA was 5.18 in 2019. That was the worst in the National League.

The Pirates top two pitchers in the rotation are slated to be Joe Musgrove (4.44 ERA in 2019) and Trevor Williams (5.38 in 2019). That’s followed by Mitch Keller (7.13), Derek Holland (6.08), and some combination of Steven Brault (5.16) and Chad Kuhl (coming off of injury).

Not to mention a bullpen in a state of flux with Felipe Vazquez gone and Keone Kela’s status up in the air.

Based on last year’s numbers, you may be dubious of the Pirates’ ability to balance those shortcomings at the plate.

After all, the Bucs’ bats were ranked 27th in home runs, 20th in runs, and 19th in team OPS.

Not earth shattering. And keep in mind, Starling Marte’s .295 average, 23 home runs, and 82 RBIs are subtracted from those totals this year now that he is in Arizona.

However, look at the potential top six hitters in the Pirates lineup. And take their best season over the last three years (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage/home runs/RBIs).

Kevin Newman (2019) — 308/.353/.446/.800/12/64

Bryan Reynolds (2019) —.314/.377/.503/.880/16/68

Adam Frazier (2019) — .278/.336/.417/.753/10/50

Josh Bell (2019) — .277/.367/.569/.936/37/116

Colin Moran (2019) — .277/.322/.429/.751/13/80

Gregory Polanco (2016) — .258/.323/.463/.786/22/86

That’s a top two-thirds of the batting order that can put a strain on pitchers and can hit its way into some wins.

Now, is it entirely possible that Newman, Bell and Reynolds had the best seasons of their careers already?

Yes. Yes, it is.

Meanwhile Frazier’s numbers have been pretty consistent since he got in the league.

Moran was fairly even between 2018 and 2019. While his strikeout total jumped by 35, his RBIs went up by 22 in a similar amount of games and plate appearances.

And for as inconsistent as we deem Polanco to be, that’s been based more on health than statistics. You kinda know at this point what you are going to get from Polanco. You just don’t know how often you are going to get it.

So what needs to happen for the Pirates bats to bail out their questionable pitchers on a regular basis?

• Bell has to be the guy we saw through 60 games last year when he was at 17 home runs, a .338 batting average and an OPS of 1.091 through June 6.

Well, OK. That’s asking a ton. At least, he needs to be close to it.

• Newman and Reynolds need to stay within 15-20 points of those batting averages with Reynolds generating a greater home run rate.

“If I hit homers, I hit homers. If I hit doubles, I hit doubles,” Reynolds said. “It’ll all come. I’m not worried about it one way or the other.”

He shouldn’t be. But it wouldn’t hurt.

• Frazier and Moran can’t dip. At all. In fact, a step up from both may be necessary. And may be possible.

• And Polanco needs to be for 60 games what we’ve wanted him to be since the first month of his 2014 rookie season.

The point is, with each of these guys, decent production is on record already. That means it can be replicated.

It needs to be.

To that end, Jacob Stallings, if you’re reading this, do you think you’ve got .260 in you again this year?

Oh, and Jose Osuna. Those five pinch hit homers you clocked last year? How about five or six more as a DH or bat off the bench this year?

I’m not asking the Pirates to be the ‘27 Yankees. I am asking them to cushion the blow of the ‘20 Pirates pitching staff.

If they do, they could make this dash to October interesting.

If they don’t? Well, Steelers training camp is just at the other end of the parking lot this year.