Division titles, playoff seeds at stake for Steelers, other AFC contenders

This much is known about the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff situation heading into Sunday:

They are assured of being in the expanded field of seven teams representing the AFC. They can win the division title if Cleveland loses at the New York Giants in prime time or if the 11-2 Steelers take care of business against the last-place Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1) on “Monday Night Football.”

Winning the AFC North for the first time in three years would give the Steelers at least one home playoff game. And in this year of the pandemic and the scheduling headaches it has caused, a chance to stay home and enjoy the accompanying comforts in the postseason might carry more weight than in an ordinary playoff year.

Thanks to back-to-back losses, though, the Steelers are no longer the No. 1 seed, and the odds of overtaking 12-1 Kansas City and getting the first-round bye are long. Standing pat at the No. 2 spot won’t be easy, either, not with 11-3 Buffalo looming just a half-game back and owning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Even with a win at Cincinnati, it is feasible for the Steelers to drop to third or fourth. In the event Buffalo becomes the second seed, the Steelers would retain the No. 3 spot even with losses in the final two games — provided Tennessee wins the AFC South. If Indianapolis leapfrogs Tennessee, the Steelers would be the No. 4 seed in the event they finish with an identical 12-4 record as the Colts.

Much will be determined in the AFC over the final three weekends with five teams essentially vying for the four remaining berths. Here is a breakdown of the AFC playoff picture entering Week 15. Las Vegas (7-7) and New England (6-7), although mathematically alive, are not considered for the purposes of this discussion:

Kansas City

Record: 12-1

Remaining games: at New Orleans (10-3); vs. Atlanta (4-9); vs. L.A. Chargers (5-9)

Conference record: 10-1

Chance of getting No. 1 seed: 93% (fivethirtyeight.com); 89% (New York Times)

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can’t clinch the No. 1 seed this weekend, but they can move closer to securing a first-round bye with at win at New Orleans. A Steelers loss to the Bengals would all but wrap it up for Kansas City, but Buffalo remains (barely) in the running for the top seed.

Steelers

Record: 11-2

Remaining games: at Cincinnati (2-10-1); vs. Indianapolis (9-4); at Cleveland (9-4)

Conference record: 8-1

Chance of getting No. 1 seed: 5% (fivethirtyeight.com); 10% (New York Times)

What’s at stake: Catching the Chiefs for the top seed is a long shot, so the Steelers should concentrate on staying ahead of Buffalo for the No. 2 seed, which could bring two home playoff games. A win at Cincinnati would be a step in that direction.

Buffalo

Record: 11-3

Remaining games: at New England (6-7); vs. Miami (8-5)

Conference record: 8-2

Chance of getting No. 1 seed: 1% (fivethirtyeight.com; New York Times)

What’s at stake: The Bills clinched the AFC East title for the first time since 1995 by beating Denver on Saturday. The Bills remain very much in the running for the No. 2 seed. Regardless, the Bills will open the playoffs at home.

Tennessee

Record: 9-4

Remaining games: vs. Detroit (5-8); at Green Bay (10-3); at Houston (4-9)

Conference record: 7-4

Chance of making playoffs: 97% (fivethirtyeight.com) 95% (New York Times)

What’s at stake: The Titans are in with a win over Detroit and a Baltimore loss to Jacksonville. They also can clinch a berth with a win Sunday, a loss by Miami and a win by Cleveland. If the Titans beat the Texans in the season finale and finish with the same record as the Colts, they would win the AFC South based on a superior division record.

Indianapolis

Record: 9-4

Remaining games: vs. Houston (4-9); at Steelers (11-2); vs. Jacksonville (1-12)

Conference record: 5-4

Chance of making playoffs: 90% (fivethirtyeight.com); 84% (New York Times)

What’s at stake: The Colts can clinch nothing this weekend, but they are surging with four wins in their past five games. Unless the Titans stumble, the Colts’ path to the postseason likely is via the wild-card route.

Cleveland

Record: 9-4

Remaining games: at N.Y. Giants (5-8); at N.Y. Jets (0-13); vs. Steelers (11-2)

Conference record: 6-4

Chance of making playoffs: 89% (fivethirtyeight.com); 87% (New York Times)

What’s at stake: Cleveland can’t clinch a wild-card berth this weekend, but the fact the Browns play back-to-back games in the Meadowlands gives them a good shot of ending their 17-year playoff drought. The finale against the Steelers could come down to playoff seeding for both teams.

Baltimore

Record: 8-5

Remaining games: vs. Jacksonville (1-12); vs. N.Y. Giants (5-8); at Cincinnati (2-10-1)

Conference record: 5-5

Chance of making playoffs: 91% (fivethirtyeight.com); 77% (New York Times)

What’s at stake: The Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule, playing teams that have a combined 8 wins, 30 losses and one tie. That alone gives Baltimore a leg up on Miami.

Miami

Record: 8-5

Remaining games: vs. New England (6-7); at Las Vegas (7-6); at Buffalo (10-3)

Conference record: 5-4

Chance of making playoffs: 30% (fivethirtyeight.com); 47% (New York Times)

What’s at stake: Unlike the Ravens, the Dolphins don’t have any easy games remaining. Their best shot is to win the next two, hope Buffalo rests starters in Week 17 and pray for help elsewhere.