Analytics group laments Mike Tomlin's 'surrender' with 4th-and-1 punt in Steelers' loss

Five things we learned from Raiders 26, Steelers 17:

1. Fourth down debate

Mike Tomlin’s decision to punt on fourth-and-1 from the Steelers 34 with 8 minutes, 36 seconds left and his team trailing by nine points didn’t just flummox what was left of the announced 63,707 attendance at Heinz Field.

It also drew scrutiny on social media and even from the analytics crowd.

The folks at edjsports, a Louisville-based data company that determines win/loss percentages based on 400,000 computer simulations, determined that Tomlin electing to punt was the third-most egregious coaching decision on fourth down in all 15 NFL games played Sunday.

It even labeled the decision as “Tomlin’s Surrender.”

Top ????️ WORST Coaching Decisions of #NFL Week 2!

5️⃣ #MIN punts on 4th and 1
4️⃣ Leading by 1 in Q4, #LAR punts
3️⃣ #PIT punts on 4th and 1
2️⃣ #Vikings, Zimmer decided to punt, trailing by 1
1️⃣ In Q4- 4th and 6, #MIN punts

To view the full analysis ⤵️https://t.co/9lUkT2gIus pic.twitter.com/SgEpEvyYAp

— EdjSports (@edjsports) September 20, 2021

Edjsports determined that Tomlin’s decision to punt lessened the Steelers chance of winning the game by 5.6%. Had the Steelers converted the fourth-and-1 with just the one necessary yard, their chance of winning would have increased to nearly 15%. An unsuccessful conversion would have dropped the win percentage below 5%.

Here was part of the explanation behind the methodology:

“The required success rate for Pittsburgh was only 22.5%, assuming a punt of 45 yards. An average team would be expected to convert a fourth and 1 well over 22.5% of the time, around 70%. So, the decision by Tomlin to punt was a very curious one.”

Four of the other top-five “worst” decisions were made in the Cardinals-Vikings game, with Vikings coach Mike Zimmer being cited three times.

Raiders coach Jon Gruden, by the way, was credited with the second-best decision of the weekend when his team went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Steelers 8 late in the second quarter. Derek Carr gained 2 yards on the play.

Edjsports determined that Gruden’s call, which ultimately resulted in a 41-yard field goal at the end of the half, increased the Raiders’ chances of winning — they held a 9-7 lead after the kick — by 5.3%.

2. Familiar territory

Like Rome, the attempt to overhaul the Steelers running game wasn’t constructed in a day. It took several months of coaching, roster and scheme changes (and plenty of practice) for the Steelers to retool what was the NFL’s 32^nd-ranked running game from 2020.

So far, not much looks different.

Among the 30 teams that entered Monday having played two games, the Steelers remain last in rushing, totaling 114 yards. Even the Detroit Lions, who played Monday night, already had more yards on the ground than the Steelers.

Unless the Green Bay Packers are held to 71 yards or less against Detroit, the Steelers will remain the NFL’s worst rushing team heading into Week 3 against Cincinnati.

Behind an offensive line that features two rookies and one returning starter, first-round pick Najee Harris has gained 83 yards on 26 attempts — a 3.2 average that is less than what James Conner averaged in his final year with the Steelers.

3. Final blow

While players from both teams gathered after the final whistle blew, wide receiver Diontae Johnson was being assisted off the field with a leg injury.

The extent of Johnson’s injury wasn’t immediately known and is not considered serious, but if it does keep the third-year receiver out of the lineup for a game, it will remove the most productive pass catcher from the rotation.

Johnson leads the Steelers with 14 catches for 141 yards, and he has the only receiving touchdown among the team’s wideouts. If the injury impacts his chances of playing against the Bengals, it will elevate James Washington to a starting role.

After his agent reportedly requested a trade in training camp, Washington’s role has remained stagnant through two regular-season games. He has two catches for 10 yards, both coming in the season opener. Against the Raiders, Washington was targeted just once, and he has logged 27 snaps combined over the two games.

4. Diminishing asset

Based on his contract and experience, Eric Ebron headed into training camp as the No. 1 tight end on the depth chart. Even though he is listed as a co-starter with rookie Pat Freiermuth, it is becoming clear that Ebron is no longer the top player at his position.

Freiermuth caught all four of his targets for 36 yards against the Raiders and was on the field for 33 of 56 offensive snaps. By comparison, Ebron had no catches on two targets — one could be considered a drop — and played 24 snaps.

With the Steelers struggling to generate a running game and Ebron offering little value as a blocker, Freiermuth has moved ahead of him on the depth chart even if Tomlin’s official release doesn’t designate it.

5. Rookie roundup

Isaiahh Loudermilk became the eighth rookie to suit up for the Steelers when he got a spot on the gameday roster as a result of nose tackle Carlos Davis’ knee injury.

When Tyson Alualu went down with a right ankle fracture after four defensive snaps, Loudermilk became part of the defensive line rotation. He was on the field for 18 plays, participating in more than 25% of the snaps. He was credited with one assisted tackle and played 14 of his snaps at tackle, with the rest coming at end.