Analysis: Pitt appears to be an NCAA Tournament-worthy team, but it may need to beat North Carolina to prove it

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The argument will rage all day, certainly on social media and the talk shows in Pittsburgh.

During the telecast Friday night of the ACC Tournament semifinal doubleheader — Pitt vs. North Carolina; N.C. State vs. Virginia — ESPN will flood its cable lines with talk and speculation about Pitt’s NCAA Tournament chances

Here’s the question: What happens to Pitt if it loses to North Carolina in the Panthers’ first appearance in an ACC Tournament semifinal in 10 years? A loss is possibility when you consider North Carolina has won 12 of its past 15 games and is in line for a No. 1 seed.

But Pitt has been just as successful as North Carolina since mid-January, and is looking every bit like an NCAA Tournament-worthy team. So many examples:

• Ishmael Leggett scored 30 points, Blake Hinson 20 in an 81-69 quarterfinal victory against Wake Forest.

• Pitt recorded 10 steals, blocked three shots and shot 80% from the free-throw line.

• The Panthers lost all but three points of a 19-point lead, but still won by 12.

All this against a team that defeated the Panthers by 33 three weeks ago.

There’s been plenty of positive talk about how Pitt recovered from a 1-5 start to its conference schedule to finish 12-8 before adding one more victory in the tournament. But those five losses count, just like the Duke and Virginia road victories do.

Yet there is a school of thought that how a team is playing on the eve of the NCAA Tournament matters more than losses that occurred months ago. Pitt (22-10) is showing no wrinkles in its game at the right time, winning five of six and 12 of 15.

What a deflating experience it would be if Pitt was forced to play in the NIT after such a dynamic run through January, February and March, nearly half the season.

But it’s possible.

For example:

• The Atlantic 10 stole a bid from a bubble team such as Pitt after its four top-seeded teams lost in the quarterfinal round of its tournament? The eventual champion gets an automatic berth, but it could be Saint Joseph’s, the No. 9 seed.

• What about No. 3 Dayton (24-7), which came into the conference tournament ranked 24th in the nation in the Associated Press poll. What about No. 1 Richmond or No. 2 Loyola-Chicago (both 23-9)?

• Does Dayton get in, anyway, after losing to Duquesne? Locked in, actually.

• Did Drake steal a bid by defeating Indiana State in the Missouri Valley Conference title game? Drake and Indiana State are 28-6.

• Bubble teams Texas A&M and New Mexico won in their respective conference tournaments Thursday. That doesn’t help Pitt’s cause.

• Virginia did Pitt no favor by avoiding an upset in the ACC Tournament, slipping past Boston College in overtime.

Pitt can erase all doubt by defeating North Carolina on Friday. The Tar Heels are on a seven-game winning streak, but relative lightweights Georgia Tech and Syracuse defeated them. Why not Pitt? The Panthers are a better team than the one that lost to the Tar Heels on Jan. 2, 70-57, at Petersen Events Center, and they are playing with plenty of momentum and what Hinson called “good vibes.”

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi holds the bucket of cold water, but he is not on the selection committee. The bad news for Pitt is that Lunardi’s projections are usually not far off from the official bracket.

After Pitt’s victory against Wake Forest, the Panthers were third in Lunardi’s first four out group — behind New Mexico and Indiana State — while Virginia and Texas A&M were the last two in. Pitt needs to, somehow, jump over three of those teams, but perhaps only a victory against North Carolina will do the trick.

Atlantic 10 dominoes fall back the other way. pic.twitter.com/eJixS3WUsr

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 15, 2024

There would be no shame if Pitt’s seven-man lineup lost to Tar Heels, who are ranked No. 4 in the nation by the AP.

No shame, but it might result in lots of angst and disappointment among players, coaches and fans on Selection Sunday.

Jeff Capel has assembled teams of talented freshmen and transfers over the past two seasons who mix well together. That’s a testament to the coaching staff, and how well the players have grown as men and basketball players.

“Togetherness,” Leggett said. “If you don’t have it, you won’t win, honestly. We genuinely love each other and it shows on the court.

“We go into each game with the same broad perspective. Just impose your will and give 110%. If we do that, I like our chances with any team in the ACC.”

After the last bounce of the basketball, however, Pitt’s fate is out of its hands and into those of 12 committee members.