5 things we learned: Computers like Steelers' chances of securing 1st-round bye

Five things we learned from Steelers 19, Ravens 14:

1. Looking ahead

Although the Steelers officially haven’t clinched a playoff spot, mathematical models give them a 99% chance of reaching the postseason for the first time in three years.

A win against the Washington Football Team on Monday would do the trick. With a loss, the Steelers would clinch a berth in the event of the Las Vegas Raiders losing to the winless New York Jets and the Ravens losing to the Dallas Cowboys.

The website fivethirtyeight.com estimates the Steelers having a 65% chance of earning the lone first-round playoff bye and a 17% chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs, however, are given a 27% chance of winning the Super Bowl despite having only a 35% chance of securing the first-round bye in the AFC.

The New York Times’ playoff simulator is a little more generous to the Steelers. It gives the Steelers and Chiefs an equal 17% chance of winning the Super Bowl and estimates the Steelers’ chances of getting the first-round bye at 69% to the Chiefs’ 31.

2. Staying upright

With Ben Roethlisberger attempting 51 passes, it’s no surprise the Ravens hit him six times. But, like the Cowboys, Bengals and Jaguars before them, the Ravens couldn’t generate a sack.

Roethlisberger extended his streak without being sacked to four games and 199 pass attempts, adding to his career-best run in both statistical areas. The last time Roethlisberger was sacked occurred in the third quarter against the Ravens — back on Nov. 1.

This time, Roethlisberger was working with a new center as J.C. Hassenauer made his first career start. It didn’t affect Roethlisberger’s rhythm or lead to any awkward exchanges between the new center and veteran quarterback.

The 10 sacks against Roethlisberger are the fewest by a full-time quarterback this season. Philip Rivers also has been sacked 10 times, but he has attempted 40 fewer passes.

For the streak to continue another week, Roethlisberger will have to avoid pressure from Washington, which has 36 sacks, second only to the Steelers’ 41.

3. Seeing red

Mike Tomlin once went two full seasons without winning an instant replay challenge, so when he throws the red flag, having a ruling overturned isn’t exactly a sure thing.

Tomlin dropped the flag with 3 minutes, 8 seconds left in the third quarter and the Steelers clinging to a 12-7 lead. It turned out to be a smart decision.

The ruling on a second-and-10 pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster near the right sideline was an incompletion. Tomlin thought Smith-Schuster held onto the ball long enough before losing it out of bounds to constitute a catch and 5-yard gain to give possession at the Steelers 44.

The replay official in New York agreed. Instead of facing a third-and-10, the Steelers needed only 5 yards for a first down. Diontae Johnson got 6 on a short crossing route, and the drive continued.

The drive ended with a 1-yard touchdown pass to Smith-Schuster, resulting in the only touchdown produced by the offense the entire game.

4. Count me in

Sean Davis was credited with playing two defensive snaps against the Ravens. The little-used safety was hoping to get three, and it resulted in a 5-yard penalty late in the second quarter.

Davis thought he was supposed to replace Terrell Edmunds when the Ravens brought in an extra blocker while facing a second-and-6 at the Steelers 33. Trouble was, Edmunds never departed, and the Steelers were flagged for having too many men on the field.

It was the kind of mental mistake one would expect from the Ravens, given that they activated 10 players from the practice squad for the game and were missing about a dozen starters because of covid-19. The Steelers had no such excuse.

5. Deep thoughts

The directional kicking approach that had been effective earlier in the season was not on display in the first quarter. Chris Boswell’s opening kick was fielded at the 9 and returned 26 yards. Boswell’s second try went only to the 15 and was brought back to the 33.

No wonder that after the next three times the Steelers got points, Boswell was told to kick deep. All three attempts went into the end zone for touchbacks.

The distance Boswell showed on those final three kickoffs alleviated any concerns that he couldn’t boot the ball deep because of an injury. Still, the issues he is having on extra-point attempts remains troubling. Boswell pushed his first PAT try to the right, and it marked his fourth missed extra point of the year.