Sheldon Jacobson and Janet Jokela: Airport security checkpoints are nation’s covid-19 canary

We welcome the new year with nearly 22 million confirmed covid-19 cases and 365,000 deaths. The U.S. leads the world in total confirmed cases and deaths, while also ranking second in confirmed cases per capita and seventh in deaths per capita (for countries with a population over 10 million). The impact of covid-19 on our nation has not only been significant in absolute terms, but also significant relative to other countries.

Even amid the covid-19 threat, air travel has grown steadily since the summer. In December 2020, over 26 million passengers were screened, slightly more than in November, and the highest monthly total since February 2020 before covid-19 reduced air travel.

The covid-19 environment at airport security checkpoints is a microcosm of society. With a TSA workforce of 45,000 officers staffing airport security checkpoints at commercial airports, well over 5,300 have been infected and 13 have died. These numbers (12% confirmed case rate and 0.25% case fatality rate) are consistent with what one would expect given their demographics.

The TSA has taken precautions to protect airport security officers, providing face coverings, face shields and acrylic barriers to keep them safe. In spite of such efforts, TSA officer infections are occurring at the same rate as those in the general population.

Why is this? One possible explanation is that despite best efforts to adhere to CDC guidelines to limit the spread of covid-19, virus transmission continues to occur at alarmingly high rates. It also indicates that it is critical for TSA officers to wear face coverings and face shields, use acrylic barriers, and practice physical distancing in the same manner as health care workers. TSA officers are at high risk, period.

The nation’s positivity rate in December was 11% based on over 57 million tests administered, or 17% of the U.S. population, assuming the preponderance of tests were administered to unique individuals. This means for every 100 people tested, 11 people on average became infected. It is possible that if twice as many people had been tested, the number of cases would have been significantly higher, capturing many more symptomatic and likely, asymptomatic infections.

Although the positivity rate will ebb and flow, the current virus transmission rate will lead to between 5 million and 8 million additional infections every month for the next several months, with the accompanying number of hospitalizations and deaths. This will occur despite people’s awareness of and adherence to CDC guidelines for face coverings, physical distancing and hand hygiene. If guidelines are not followed, the number of cases likely would be even higher.

The takeaway from the data is that each person must take personal responsibility to protect themselves if they wish to remain infection-free. TSA officer infections at airport security checkpoints demonstrate that the best recommendations offered by the CDC still lead to widespread infections.

What can be done to improve the situation?

Until recently, the solutions have been limited. With the FDA approval of two vaccines, and other vaccines that will be considered in early 2021, the race is on to get these vaccines out of manufacturing plants, through the vaccine supply chain and into the arms of every person who wants to be immunized.

Clearly, getting 70% to 90% of the population vaccinated is a priority. However, the definitive nail in the coffin for covid-19 will be when highly effective treatments are developed that clean up the rogue infections left by those who choose to not be immunized or those who become infected even if vaccinated (since the vaccines are not 100% effective).

Watching how TSA officer infections ebb and flow in 2021 provides a snapshot of what is happening in the general population. Lessons learned from the TSA will be invaluable as our nation traverses the road to recovery.