Letter to the editor: Inadequate models for covid-19

The problem in applying a model to a real-world situation is always the inadequacy, even more so when the model cannot be worked through to the end of the argument. So it is with Dr. Christopher Koman’s model of the lily pad in the pond (“Normalcy bias hampers fight against covid-19,” April 15, TribLIVE).

Growing up, my family visited my aunt and uncle’s summer home along the Clarion River. My Uncle Ty’s pride and joy was his pond with ducks and all kinds of fish; we couldn’t fish his beloved. The pond was a dynamic ecosystem requiring a delicate balance and managed by a kind-hearted retired milkman. Problems arose and were solved with a specific precision; fowl and fish lived. A fool would welcome a lily pad, they were never welcomed by Uncle Ty.

A bigger fool would cut off the fresh supply of spring water to kill the lily pad. Cut off the fresh water and drain the pond to kill the lily pad? Unconscionable. I cannot recall how he got rid of the lily pads, but there was always fresh water with adequate drainage.

To be sure, the covid-19 virus hasn’t a specific public health or medical approach guaranteeing the survival of the entire pond. Economists are clamoring. Business people are demanding. And kind-hearted people, like Uncle Ty, offer common- sense ideas. Strictly following public health and medical experts, to the exclusion of others, would ensure the lily pads be eradicated because the ecosystem of the pond would grow toxic and die. Even my model is woefully inadequate.

The Rev. James Holland

West Deer