Pennsylvania’s history as a swing state always gets attention during presidential election years.

In the last two such elections, it has made all the difference. Suburban voters in Beaver, Butler and Chester counties helped put the Keystone State in Donald Trump’s column in 2016. Erie and Northampton counties switched to Joe Biden in 2020. Without the Pennsylvania pivot, the presidency would have ended up in different hands both times.

That generally is the story about the state’s elections. This year will be the same. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the top prize among the five major swing states up for grabs. Arizona has 11, Georgia 16, Michigan 15 and Wisconsin 11. Nevada and North Carolina were also narrow margins in 2020, but they have just six and 16 electoral votes, respectively.

But the tables could turn this year. Instead of the state driving who gets control in Washington, the national race could be a major factor in who gets power in Harrisburg.

As always, a presidential election year also serves as an opportunity for upheaval in the legislatures. In addition to every federal representative and one U.S. Senate seat being on the ballot, so are all the state House seats and half of the state Senate.

The state House has a hair-thin majority. It is in Democratic hands and has been for most of 2023 and 2024, with a few brief hiccups due to death, resignations and special elections. Before that, Republicans held the chamber for 11 years.

The state Senate has a comparatively cushy six-seat Republican majority. Democrats haven’t seen control of that chamber since 1993.

But questions about Biden’s debate performance and pushes from some Democrats to change the ticket might affect turnout. If Democrats stay home, the lack of confidence at the top of the ticket could have a huge impact on down-ballot races in the state Legislature.

That’s not just a Democratic concern. Let’s not forget Trump’s own complications, namely the 34 felony convictions in New York and pending trials in Georgia and two federal courts.

Then there is the political pushback against abortion restrictions that has motivated turnout elsewhere, prompting big votes in favor of protecting reproductive rights even in red states. Legislative control will be a huge factor in whether Pennsylvania becomes one of the next abortion battlefields. Those pros and cons are a big part of this year’s election messaging.

“If the election were held tomorrow, I’d feel great about it,” state Rep. Josh Kail (R-Beaver/Washington) told the Associated Press.

But the election isn’t tomorrow. It’s more than 31⁄2 months away. That’s time for a lot of twists, turns and weird pivots in the story of the biggest swing state.

The most important thing for voters to remember is that casting a ballot matters for a lot more than just the guy at the top.

Copyright ©2025— Trib Total Media, LLC (TribLIVE.com)