Baruch Stein: A world without American aid to Israel

Several Democratic presidential contenders have discussed cutting aid to Israel if their demands are not met. The latest confrontation in Gaza provides an opportunity to understand what that means.

Approximately 450 rockets were fired at Israel between Nov. 12 and 14. More than half landed in open areas between towns. Of those determined to have been headed toward population centers, 90% were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system. But by shooting large numbers of rockets simultaneously, Gaza militants can sometimes overwhelm the Iron Dome.

Rocket explosions destroyed factories in the towns of Sderot and Sha’ar Hanegev. In Ashkelon, a retirement home was hit. In Holon, an 8-year-old had to be shocked back to life after losing consciousness as a result of heart failure due to anxiety during a rocket attack.

The Iron Dome is a joint U.S.-Israeli project. Its production and ongoing operating costs are funded by the United States. Without the funds supporting it, the number of rockets hitting civilian population centers would be significantly higher, causing large numbers of casualties. With no way to stop the rockets, Israel would be compelled to send in ground troops at every major escalation.

The last ground operation in Gaza was in 2014, when 73 Israelis and more than 2,100 Gazans died during 50 days of fighting in which 4,591 rockets were fired at Israel and hundreds of thousands of Israelis were temporarily displaced. In 2014, though, the Iron Dome was already in use; without it there would have been significantly more casualties.

Some say Israel would make whatever concessions were necessary to satisfy America and prevent the loss of aid. This assumes either that Israel is capable of unilateral concessions without an agreement with the Palestinians or that Israeli concessions are all that is needed for one.

I have written articles supporting Palestinian statehood. I believe the 4.6 million Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza are entitled to a representative government, but that American pressure would not advance a two-state solution.

Without an agreement between both sides, Palestinian factions could reject any line to which Israel withdraws unilaterally and continue to maintain a posture of conflict. Any Israeli concessions must be predicated on a Palestinian declaration of an end to the conflict and recognition of Israel’s right to exist.

As recently as March 9, 2016, the Palestinians rejected an offer based on the 1967 Green Line that would have divided Jerusalem but required them to recognize Israel’s right to exist. They rejected a similar offer on March 17, 2014. Whereas the opportunities for Palestinian statehood that were rejected in 1947, 2000 and 2008 were highly publicized, the Obama administration tried to keep the offers rejected during their tenure secret. It was the Palestinians who leaked details of the 2016 offer, seemingly because reports of a rejectionist negotiating position are popular on the Palestinian street.

If the Jewish presence in the West Bank is the basis of the conflict, why have the Palestinians rejected offers for Israeli withdrawal? It is because accepting them would require the Palestinians to recognize Israel’s right to exist as the nation-state of the Jewish people and declare an end to the conflict. In the meantime, the maintenance and development of the Jewish presence in the West Bank is all Israel has as leverage to ever get the Palestinians to accept the Jewish state.

Since Israel cannot make concessions without an agreement and the Palestinians refuse any plausible agreement, conditioning American aid on Israeli concessions is tantamount to pulling funding. The loss of any of Israel’s American-supplied military systems would destabilize the situation and lead to massive casualties on both sides.

In the meantime, if the Democratic presidential contenders wish to be seen as credible brokers of an agreement, why are so many of them talking about pressuring Israel while remaining silent regarding the role the Palestinians have played in fomenting the conflict?

Squirrel Hill native Baruch Stein has been living in Jerusalem for more than 11 years.