Analysts at Cox Automotive, an automotive services company, expect new vehicle sales in the United States for 2024 will come in at just over 15.8 million, beating a previous forecast and marking the best year since 2019.
After a strong fourth quarter, automakers are expected to post sales of 15.85 million in 2024, up 2.3% from 2023’s 15.55 million and slightly up from Cox’s 15.7 million forecast shared at the beginning of the year. Sales are expected to improve further in 2025 and reach 16.3 million units.
“Many buyers who thought it best to wait to get the best deal are realizing that now is the time to buy before new administration policy changes are implemented,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, in a statement. “Some vehicle buyers are taking advantage of EV discounts that could be dialed back by the new administration, and others may be concerned potential tariffs may hit price. So, the market has strong tailwinds as the year comes to a close.”
Lower interest rates and less uncertainty also helped fourth quarter sales, according to Cox analysts.
Incentives on electric vehicles are expected to increase sales of those offerings. Cox estimates new EV sales will increase 12% in the fourth quarter, driving total new EV sales to 1.3 million.
In 2024, General Motors Co. is expected to again take the sales crown with forecasted deliveries of about 2.7 million vehicles, a 4.2% increase from 2023.
Toyota Motor Corp. will follow with 2.2 million forecasted sales, up 3.9% from 2023. Ford Motor Co. will come in third place with about 2 million sales expected for a 3.8% increase.
After a difficult year for Stellantis NV dealers with old inventory and high prices affecting sales, the maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps is expected to post a 15% sales decline with 1.5 million sales.
Only Stellantis and Tesla Inc. are expected to post sales declines for the year.
Heading into 2025, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke has a positive economic outlook with the risk of a recession falling.
But Smoke will be watching vehicle affordability, which remains one of the industry’s biggest challenges, interest rates and policy changes that come with President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.
“We’re seeing a stabilizing job market, lower interest rates that should decline as much as a point lower by spring,” Smoke said on a call highlighting Cox’s forecast. “Yes, inflation could reignite a bit if immigration is radically reduced, if massive tariffs are implemented, and if fiscal policy is overdone and expands the deficit.”
But, Smoke added: “Bottom line is that we believe healthy consumers should sustain the retail auto market in 2025.”
