MIAMI — When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis takes the stage next Wednesday at the first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee, he’ll face perhaps the biggest test yet of his campaign’s efforts to re-establish his position as the strongest alternative to former President Donald Trump.
Even as the governor’s campaign has worked to lower expectations, some of DeSantis’ donors and allies are looking at the debate as a potentially make-or-break moment for his candidacy. An adept performance, they say, could quickly quell doubts about his presidential ambitions and reassure supporters that the primary remains a two-person race between him and Trump.
But amid anticipation that opponents will train their fire on DeSantis, his backers are also watching closely for signs of weakness in his debate performance — which could be complicated by the undesired publication of a memo laying out debate advice from an allied consulting firm.
“DeSantis needs to make a strong showing to reassure that his campaign is on track,” Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor who’s backing the Florida governor’s presidential bid, said.
After entering the 2024 presidential race earlier this year with lofty expectations that he could quickly establish himself as the clear successor to Trump, DeSantis’ White House bid has been beset by a series of problems, ranging from the campaign’s rapid pace of spending in the opening weeks of DeSantis’ candidacy to concerns about his overall message.
For his supporters, the debate is a promising opportunity to introduce himself to those Republican voters who haven’t fully tuned into the election cycle.
“He’s looking forward to it,” Justin Sayfie, a Florida-based Republican lobbyist and DeSantis fundraiser, said. “It’s a unique opportunity with millions of voters watching, with the national press watching. It’s a chance for him to take back the narrative.”
Still, the debate carries significant risks.
Sayfie said that the first debate is likely to be the most watched, even if it’s not yet known whether Trump will participate. And if DeSantis — or any other candidate, for that matter — falls flat, it could prove difficult to rebound.
“People are going to make quick judgments,” Sayfie added. ” ‘Do I like him or her, or do I not like him or her?’ And once those judgments are made, they are going to be hard to undo.”
DeSantis and his allies are managing expectations ahead of the debate, arguing that the governor is almost certain to face the brunt of the criticism from other Republican candidates and downplaying the notion that the showdown will have any real impact on his candidacy.
“Every candidate on and off the debate stage will have their knives out for Ron DeSantis because they know this is a two-man race,” Andrew Romeo, the communications director for DeSantis’ campaign, said. “If DeSantis wasn’t the best candidate to beat Joe Biden, Donald Trump wouldn’t have spent over $20 million attacking him. See you in Milwaukee.”
One DeSantis fundraiser said that the governor and his team are anxious to avoid setting too high of a bar for his debate performance.
Some DeSantis supporters also acknowledged that the notably combative governor isn’t a natural on the debate stage. He’s been meeting for weeks with Brett O’Donnell, a veteran Republican operative who helped coach Mitt Romney through the 2012 GOP primary debates, in preparation for next week’s event.
One of the biggest questions looming over the debate is whether Trump will actually show up. The former president has qualified for the debate, but has refused to say whether he’ll participate. One line of thought for the former president is that skipping out on the debate could help redirect his primary rivals’ criticism at DeSantis, according to a person familiar with Trump’s thinking.
Regardless of whether Trump shows up or not, DeSantis is expected to be a main target of his opponents. A person familiar with debate preparations for one rival candidate said that they’ve been studying DeSantis’ record and public remarks for weak points in the weeks leading up to the debate.
DeSantis’ opponents may have received unintended assistance in their debate preparations Thursday from an unlikely source: the consulting firm running the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down.
A trove of documents posted online this week by Axiom Strategies outlined a series of recommendations for DeSantis’ debate approach, advising the Florida governor to go after President Joe Biden “3-5 times;” attack one of his Republican rivals, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, at least once; and defend Trump against former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s attacks.
Those documents, which have since been removed from the firm’s website, were first reported by The New York Times, which also posted a copy of a memo outlining the recommended debate strategy.
DeSantis himself said that he’s expecting to take incoming fire at the debate. In an interview with Fox News Radio’s Guy Benson on Wednesday, he said that he’s “preparing for anything under the sun” — including an appearance by Trump.
“Clearly, we assume he may be there. Some people say not. And so we’ll be ready either way,” DeSantis said. “We expect to be the guy that fields the most attacks.”
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