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Biden's revived campaign puts Pennsylvania primary in play

Deb Erdley
| Thursday, March 5, 2020 9:25 a.m.
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
Joe Biden has the backing of many current and former Pennsylvania politicians heading into the state’s primary on April 28.

Super Tuesday’s Democratic primary results and the continued whittling of the party’s presidential hopefuls mean Pennsylvania’s primary could matter for the first time in years.

Experts say the stage is set for the battle between former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont to carry into Pennsylvania and New York, which are among the last big prizes at stake this spring. Both will hold primaries April 28.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts left the race Thursday, continuing a wave started by billionaire former hedge-fund executive Tom Steyer, who bowed out Saturday after his disappointing finish in the South Carolina primary.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., dropped out of the running Monday. Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire businessman and former New York City mayor, dropped out Wednesday. All three subsequently pledged to endorse Biden.

The moves suggest the Democratic Party apparatus is rallying around Biden’s centrist bid for the nomination, though it would be wrong to count Sanders out, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

“Even if Biden takes command of the race, Sanders does not seem like the quitting type,” Kondik said. “That said, Sanders still has an opportunity in the Midwest — Michigan, Illinois and Ohio are coming up over the next couple of weeks. If he can win at least a couple of those, it would stabilize his position — and potentially set up Pennsylvania as a very important race on April 28, which, following St. Patrick’s Day, is the next really big day on the calendar.”

Biden, a Scranton native, often was referred to as Pennsylvania’s third senator during his 36 years of representing Delaware in the U.S. Senate. He began racking up support among Pennsylvania Democrats last year.

U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, also a Scranton native, and former Gov. Ed Rendell were among Biden’s earliest supporters here. U.S. Reps. Conor Lamb, D-Mt. Lebanon, Chrissy Houlahan, D-Montgomery County, and Dwight Evans, D-Philadelphia, are among those who offered endorsements this year. On Monday, a coalition of 10 Western Pennsylvania county leaders publicly backed Biden.

The last Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania poll, conducted in late January — before the withdrawal of six candidates, including tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang — suggested that Biden remained the top choice of Pennsylvania Democrats. He polled at 22%, with 15% for Sanders and 14% for Warren.

Pennsylvania’s long history as a mainstay for party-backed Democrats makes it an uphill battle for Sanders, said David Chambers, who chairs the political science department at Indiana University of Pennsylvania and teaches “The Presidency,” a course for upper-level students.

“I think Biden’s got the inside track,” he said. “You’ve got the heavy African American vote in Philadelphia, and he pretty handily demonstrated he has a lock on the African American vote. I don’t think Sanders is going to take that away from him. But they are going to be competing for every single vote. Every primary election from here on out will be in play.”

Sanders will have to improve on his performance in the 2016 Pennsylvania primary, which saw Hillary Clinton best him by more than 12 points.

Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said Sanders will have to scramble to build a strong organization in Pennsylvania, where Biden launched his campaign a year ago. Biden’s first campaign stop was in Pittsburgh on April 29.

He suggested one of the Vermont senator’s best paths forward in Pennsylvania might be to concentrate on organizing college students.

“Given that he lines up strongly with younger voters and that there is a big college population here, I think a big part of his strategy will be to mobilize them. If he can get those folks into play, that could be significant,” Borick said.

Nonetheless, he looks for the Democratic Party establishment to put a laser-like focus on nominating the candidate it thinks is best equipped to beat President Trump in the general election.

And, after all that has transpired this week, it appears Biden is their choice.

“They see Trump as not just another president or a threat to the party, but an existential threat to the country,” Borick said.

He said that puts the entire race in an interesting perspective in a state that gave Trump a razor-thin edge in the 2016 election that helped boost him to the presidency.


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