Supreme Court abortion decision places higher stakes on Pa. election, experts say

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade places even higher stakes on Pennsylvania’s November election, particularly the race for governor, observers say.

Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University, said the right of women to choose to have an abortion in Pennsylvania “quite literally hangs in the balance this election.”

Dagnes said a shift in the balance of political power could result in abortion being banned or protected in Pennsylvania, where Republicans now control both chambers of the Legislature but the governor is a Democrat. The current balance of power means abortion should remain legal before 24 weeks of pregnancy in the short term, given that Gov. Tom Wolf has vowed to veto any abortion restrictions during his remaining time in office.

“Voting and turnout is of the utmost importance for both parties, especially for the Democrats if they want to maintain what has been the law of the land for 50 years,” said Dagnes.

Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race pits Republican nominee Doug Mastriano, a state senator, against Democrat Josh Shapiro, the state’s attorney general.

Mastriano has said in primary debates that he believes life begins at conception and he would prefer a ban on abortion without exceptions for rape, incest or medical emergencies that endanger the life of the mother.

In a statement issued Friday, Mastriano celebrated the Supreme Court decision and said, “Roe v. Wade is rightly relegated to the ash heap of history.”

He didn’t offer specifics on the abortion bans or restrictions he would support, but said the state “must be prepared to lead the nation in being a voice for the voiceless.”

Mastriano has introduced a bill in the state Senate to ban abortions after a fetal heartbeat is detected, which is typically after six weeks of pregnancy. Reproductive rights advocates have said these so-called “heartbeat bills” amount to abortion bans for many women who are unaware they’re pregnant at six weeks or less.

Shapiro said at a news conference that he would veto abortion restrictions proposed by Pennsylvania Republicans if elected governor.

“The stakes in this governor’s race could not be more clear,” Shapiro said. “There is one way to ensure that abortion remains legal in Pennsylvania, and this is if me and lieutenant governor nominee Austin Davis win this governor’s race.”

Republican leadership in the state House said Friday that the court’s ruling presents an opportunity to examine the state’s existing abortion law and introduce possible changes.

State Rep. Kathy Rapp, R-Warren, chair of the House Pro-Life Caucus, said that whoever sits in the governor’s mansion come 2023 will play a large role in how the Legislature approaches any abortion law proposals.

When asked if he supports any expansion of abortion rights in Pennsylvania, Shapiro said he supports the current law and expects to be in a defensive position if he were to be elected governor.

Election experts have predicted that the state House and Senate will remain in Republican control after the November election, given President Biden’s low approval ratings.

In terms of the future of abortion access in Pennsylvania, Dagnes said the state’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic nominee John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz won’t have as much importance as the governor’s race.

Fetterman criticized the court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and said he would fight to protect abortion rights if elected. Oz said he would “defend the sanctity of life” and is relieved that abortion rights will be decided by voters through the people they elect.

The U.S. Senate’s role in abortion access is currently centered more on who members support for Supreme Court seats.

Senators vote on Supreme Court nominees, and if Biden were to get the opportunity to nominate another replacement in the next two years, the balance of the Senate would be important. It is now split 50-50, with Democrats holding the tie breaker because Vice President Kamala Harris serves as president of the Senate.

With such a thin margin, Pennsylvania’s race could play a role in determining if the balance of power in the Senate. Fetterman and Oz are running for the seat held by Republican Pat Toomey, who is not seeking reelection.

With so much on the line, Dagnes said she expects even more attention and money to be funneled into Pennsylvania’s most hotly contested races. The Senate race had received more attention in the primary, with two crowded fields of candidates, but Dagnes said the Supreme Court’s decision could boost Pennsylvania’s race for governor higher into the national spotlight.

“When the stakes are this high, people will understand that elections have consequences,” Dagnes said.