Pennsylvania's presidential vote could be moot before it is even finished

After more than five dozen campaign visits to Pennsylvania by President Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden and an estimated $100 million in campaign and PAC spending, the final count in the Keystone State’s election could be insignificant in determining Tuesday’s national outcome.

The state — with 20 Electoral College votes that Trump won by a slim margin in 2016 — consistently has been cast as a must-win this year.

But events unfolding over the past two days suggest Biden, who was trailing in Pennsylvania but led by nearly 3 million votes nationally as of Wednesday evening, has a different path to the White House. And that path appears to go around Pennsylvania, where the outcome of Tuesday’s election remains in question as officials complete the tedious task of counting more than 2.5 million mail-in ballots.

Trump, who lost the popular vote by 3 million votes in 2016, secured an Electoral College victory when he won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — the so-called Blue Wall — by a combined 77,000 votes.

Although Trump had a significant lead in the early count in Pennsylvania, that lead is expected to shrink as mail-in ballots are tallied.

By Wednesday afternoon, Biden was declared the winner in Wisconsin while unexpected margins in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada threatened to take Pennsylvania out of the picture before its count is complete.

Pennsylvania voters have state lawmakers to thank for the state’s most-protracted vote count.

In a bipartisan vote, Pennsylvania lawmakers in 2019 gave voters the option of no-excuse mail-in balloting. But, when more than 3 million voters facing a global pandemic opted to take advantage of that option this fall, the Republican-controlled Legislature refused to permit counties to begin counting ballots in advance of the election. That move means the state’s vote count likely will not conclude until Friday.

The White House’s angry response Tuesday night, when Fox News called Arizona for Biden, underscored the evolving nature of the vote.

Although it seemed premature in a state that has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996, that call presaged events that developed over the next 18 hours and created new paths to 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

By late Wednesday afternoon, many news networks still considered Arizona undecided, with a slim vote margin separating the candidates and about 15% of votes there still to be counted.

“Joe Biden can get to the White House now without Pennsylvania,” said John Fortier, director of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonpartisan Washington, D.C., think tank that studies public policy issues.

Fortier said a win in Arizona, coupled with “little quirks” elsewhere, created new paths for Biden.

“A state like Nebraska now can make an incredible difference,” he said.

Nebraska, which splits its Electoral College votes by congressional district, awarded one to Biden from an urban district surrounding Omaha that went for the former vice president. Maine, likewise, is expected to split its Electoral College votes — with one going to Trump and three to Biden.

“Those single votes, combined with Arizona — assuming Joe Biden wins Arizona — means Donald Trump could win Pennsylvania and not get to even a tie in the Electoral College,” Fortier said. “That’s the path that didn’t look like it was there before. We used to say if one of those three states (Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania) went to Donald Trump, he would win. Now, with Arizona going the other direction, this one vote in Nebraska means winning one of them is not enough for Trump if everything else stays the same.”

Philip J. Harold, a political science professor at Robert Morris University in suburban Pittsburgh, sees the same path emerging for Biden.

“Biden at this point has a lot of different paths to get to 270,” Harold said. “And it becomes Trump losing. He can’t lose too many states he won in 2016.”

Nicholas R. Miller, a political scientist at the University of Maryland in Baltimore, said it seems clear that Biden’s path to winning 270 Electoral College votes would require him to win all the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016 plus Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

Some suggested a path still exists for Trump if he wins Georgia, where he was ahead by a narrow margin and two of the three blue wall states. But most say that appears increasingly unlikely.

Michael P. McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist, leads the U.S. Election Project, which tracked early voting. He said the totals are shaking out pretty much the way the early vote suggested they would among the states that have reported preliminary vote totals and those that are still counting.

“I think Arizona was the pivotal moment that meant there were pathways to a Biden victory that might not include Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania,” McDonald said. “Right now, even without Pennsylvania, Biden wins the Electoral College.”

McDonald and others believe Republicans will push to have the courts invalidate the election.

“But unlike Florida 2000, we’re not going to be in recount situation. But, for the president, even if there is a recount, I just suspect the numbers are going to be so overwhelming it would be a fruitless exercise,” McDonald said. “It might reveal flaws and Trump could point to it as problems that hurt him, but you have to provide evidence in court. You can’t just tweet.”

Late Wednesday, Trump said he was weighing a recount in Wisconsin and threatened to take other challenges to the U.S. Supreme Court, including lawsuits his campaign filed in Pennsylvania and Michigan.