Westmoreland County had the seventh-largest natural population decline last year compared to counties across the country, according to population estimates from the census.

The estimates show Westmoreland lost 1,943 people in 2020 through natural population changes, meaning there were more deaths than births.

“The description of what’s happening in Westmoreland County … is what we would call aging in place,” said Chris Briem, a regional economist for the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Social and Urban Research. “They’ve gotten older, but it’s the people who have always been there that stay.”

The trend is not new, as the county has posted some of the largest natural population declines in the country for most of the decade.

In that time, Westmoreland saw populations decline by 14,861 people through natural means. By 2019, people over the age of 65 made up 22% of the population. The median age for the county also rose from 44 in 2010 to 47 in 2019. That’s compared to the national median age of 38.5 in 2019.

“It’s not like this happened overnight,” Briem said. “It’s a reflection of economic change over the last several decades, and so this is a Pittsburgh story as much as a Westmoreland County story.”

The seven counties surrounding Westmoreland saw natural population declines last year, census data show, including Allegheny, 1,872; Washington, 665; Fayette, 654; Somerset, 294; Cambria, 666; Indiana, 173; and Armstrong, 385. Pennsylvania also lost 9,543 people to natural changes in 2020.

Populations in the region largely started to decline after the crash of the steel industry in the 1980s. As jobs left the area, so did younger generations who would have been starting families. Those children would now be having their own families, causing the region to feel a second ripple from the collapse of steel mills.

Continually slowing birth rates — now a national issue — have compounded with relatively low migration trends, meaning few people are moving into the area.

Migration trends are shifting slowly in Westmoreland, according to Jason Rigone, the county’s director of planning and development. Data compiled in a 2020 Comprehensive Plan Annual Report for Westmoreland shows that 34 people migrated to the county between 2018-19.

“The number above neutral is not very far,” Rigone said of migration trends, “but at least we’re moving in the right direction. We just need to offset the natural change.”

Still, low migration trends set the region apart from other areas of the country.

According to census data, Westmoreland ranked among six Florida counties that had the highest natural population declines in the country in 2020. The Florida counties include Pinellas, which lost 5,893 people through natural means; Sarasota, 3,837; Volusia, 2,976; Brevard, 2,869; Charlotte, 2,115; and Marion, 2,076.

But, Briem said, “the Florida counties are there but for an entirely different reason. People retire to Florida,”meaning older generations are moving into those areas as opposed to Western Pennsylvania, where people living here are growing older.

Westmoreland County leaders hope to reverse those population trends through their 2018 plan Reimagine Our Westmoreland. The 10-year plan lays out several ideas to make the county attractive for businesses and younger generations by creating a community and environment where people want to live.

“It’s a big task, but that’s what we’re aiming to do,” Rigone said.

But, according to Briem, there is “very little that local policy, local leaders, can do to change the near-term population trends. They can impact the migration flows to a certain degree, but even that is constrained. For Westmoreland County, that’s certainly constrained by how many folks are going to be brought into the region, and that’s sort of its own set of issues.”

Still, Briem noted that losing populations is not necessarily a bad thing.

“A lot of folks are sort of trying to grow back to what they once were,” Briem said. “I think we have plenty of smaller towns, municipalities, counties here in the region that are not going to get back to their peak employment or peak residences of the past. I’m pushing back on this concept of worst case. It’s a question of planning for the future.”

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