Pittsburgh experts not surprised by recent spike in Allegheny County covid numbers

A recent crest in covid case numbers in Allegheny County was entirely predictable, according to Western Pennsylvania medical experts monitoring the data.

Tracking by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classified Allegheny County to be in the “medium” level of covid-19 transmission last week, though officials have confirmed the county was at a “low” community level as of Friday. A “medium” level means a moderate impact on health care facilities and medium counts of severe covid-19 cases, while a “low” community level indicates a relatively small or limited impact on health care facilities and low numbers of severe illness cases.

The county said Thursday that for the weeks of Dec. 29-Jan. 10, there were 2,021 new covid-19 infections, 158 hospitalizations and 25 deaths reported to the Allegheny County Health Department. There were no reports for the two weeks prior because of issues with the data sets from the state, according to county director of communications Amie Downs.

The information from the two reports before that show that for the week of Dec. 22-28, there were 1,021 new covid-19 infections, 115 hospitalizations and 3 deaths reported to the health department. For the week of Dec. 15-21, there were 1,219 new covid-19 infections, 183 hospitalizations and 15 deaths reported to the health department.

“We fully expected that through the holidays as people gathered together that the spread of the virus would increase from that alone,” said Dr. Donald Yealy, senior vice president and chief medical officer for UPMC. “Secondly, we know that one of the more recent changes in the virus is this current version that makes up a significant part of the virus population within covid-19, is easier to pass about.

“You put those two things together – more contact among people, particularly people who don’t mask, and a version of the virus that passes itself around easier — and I’m not surprised that the community numbers are higher.”

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Yealy said the numbers are probably higher than what the county is reporting because many people test themselves at home and don’t report the results. But, he’s hoping the current uptick of cases has peaked.

“From the hospitalization data, I think we’re seeing that the peak may have been last week,” he said. “The hospitalization data, which is a subset of the total number of people who get infected, was at its highest point in the current wave about a week ago.”

Pittsburgh-based infectious disease expert Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said another factor in the higher number of cases is that people are not acting as cautiously as they had been.

“It’s not surprising that there’s a rise in the figures because we have the majority of the population back to their pre-pandemic life where they are not social distancing, not wearing masks as much,” Adalja said. “In the wake of the holidays that have just passed, it’s not surprising to see a respiratory virus like that increase its transmission levels. And then you couple that with the virus itself that’s evolving and better able to infect us, and that’s what leads to these cases going up.”

Adalja said people who are at high risk for getting the disease still need to take the proper precautions.

“They should make sure they are boosted. They should make sure they have a plan to use Paxlovid or be prescribed Paxlovid. They should think about when they’re in crowded places that masks might be useful for them,” Adalja said. “I don’t think there’s a one-size-fits-all recommendation for every person. I think each person has to calibrate their own risk tolerance due to the fact that this virus is always going to be with us and always going to have ups and downs.”

Yealy said an overall decrease of large gatherings will reduce the spread of covid.

“Every time we have a surge, we try to remind people your best defense, aside from a mask, is to get vaccinated,” Yealy said. “It’s never too late to get your flu or covid vaccination and they do protect, not against illness, but against severe illness. The vaccines don’t put a force field up around you to prevent the virus from coming in contact. What they do is prepare you to fight it off well if you happen to have it.”

Yealy also recommends people test themselves regularly so that if they have covid, they can get treatment as soon as possible.

Neither Allegheny County Health Department Director Debra Bogen nor anyone else in the department was available for comment Friday.