'You can't outsmart the draft': Pirates focus on best player available with No. 4 overall pick

When it comes to the MLB Draft, Ben Cherington isn’t sharing any secrets. The Pittsburgh Pirates general manager kept draftniks guessing over which prep shortstop would he would select with the first overall pick last year before pulling a surprise by taking Louisville catcher Henry Davis.

The Pirates signed Davis for $1,915,300 million below slot value, then spent the savings on four top-100 prep prospects who had slipped out of the first round. Cherington could employ a similar strategy with the No. 4 overall pick Sunday, which has a signing bonus slot value of $7,002,100. (The Pirates have the fourth-highest bonus pool in the draft, at $13,733,900).

“We’re certainly not going into it assuming that that’s a strategy that we will deploy, but we want to be ready for it if that’s the way it falls, if that’s where the opportunity is,” Cherington said. “I think you really want to focus on the first pick. Who’s the player we most want, based on who’s there? Last year was different. We literally had a choice. This year, it’s not quite the same. We don’t have as much control. We’re going to have to see what’s in front of us.”

This is the fourth time in five years the Pirates have had a top-10 pick and the second consecutive year they own one of the first five. Over the past decade, the only first-round picks still on the active roster are shortstop Kevin Newman and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, along with second-rounders in pitcher Mitch Keller and outfielder Cal Mitchell.

MLB Network draft analyst Dan O’Dowd, a former general manager with the Colorado Rockies, stressed the importance of getting this pick right for the future of the franchise.

“When you’re picking this high in the draft, you realize these slices of opportunities, hopefully, don’t come along every year because eventually you’re going to be good enough that you’re not picking in the top half of the draft every year,” said O’Dowd, who will be part of MLB Network’s draft coverage starting at 7 p.m. Sunday.

“So you really want to maximize your ability impact because you’ve got a chance to get really significant long-term WAR value out of these guys. But now you’ve got to focus on a group of four players, maybe five, because you really don’t get a great feel on signability as it relates to your bonus pool until almost now until the draft day itself or the day prior to that.”

The Pirates could have their choice from a handful of teenagers with strong hitting skills, as this draft is top-heavy with prep prospects who are the sons of former MLB and NFL players.

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Cherington has vowed to draft the best player available, though there isn’t a consensus top pick. Most mock drafts have Georgia prep outfielder Druw Jones, the son of former Atlanta Braves 10-time Gold Glove winner Andruw Jones, going No. 1 to Baltimore and Oklahoma prep shortstop Jackson Holliday, the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday, going second overall to Arizona. (Baseball America and CBS Sports, however, have Georgia prep infielder Termarr Johnson going to the Orioles and Jones to the Arizona Diamondbacks).

If Cherington has tipped his hand in the past in any way, it was by using his first-round selections for the Pirates on college stars Nick Gonzales in 2020 and Davis last year. Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee is regarded as the top college hitter this year. The Pirates also have been connected to Cam Collier, a 17-year-old third baseman who reclassified and enrolled at Chipola Junior College to be eligible for the draft.

“There’s no particular position we’re going after. We’re just going after the best player,” Cherington said. “That was the case when we drafted Nick. That was the case when we drafted Henry. That’ll be the case this year.”

The one position the Pirates probably won’t pick in the first round is pitcher, where the top two prospects both have medical issues. Dylan Lesko, a right-hander from Buford (Ga.), was the Gatorade national player of the year as a junior but underwent Tommy John surgery and is expected to slip outside the top 10. Former Vanderbilt right-hander Kumar Rocker was the No. 10 pick last year, but the New York Mets raised red flags about his arm and didn’t sign him.

The Pirates picked five pitchers after Gonzales in the five-round draft in 2020, including top-15 prospects Jared Jones and Carmen Mlodzinski, then took left-hander Anthony Solometo in the second round, two-way player Bubba Chandler in the third and righty Owen Kellington in the fourth last year.

“Every year is unique and different. This is a new year, different and unique in its own way,” Cherington said. “We do think that there’s a strong group of position players at the top of the draft. We also know that, historically, if we do our jobs well, when teams do their jobs well, pitching can be found throughout the draft, deeper in the draft often.

“If you look at the Pirates’ system, you can see examples of that. We think we can identify pitching. It doesn’t have to be at the top of the draft. It could be, though. We’re certainly looking at pitchers high and low and everywhere in-between. So I think we do the best we possibly can to get to know the players the best we can and whatever history says, you have to sort of work within the year you’re in and recognize what this particular draft class is all about and not be boxed in by any demographic bias but just evaluate the year you’re in and the players in front of us and get ready to make the best pick.”

The mock drafts differ in their choices. Where MLB.com has the Pirates taking Johnson, Baseball America has projected them picking outfielder Elijah Green and The Athletic, CBS Sports and ESPN has them choosing Collier.

Cherington could pull another surprise, save on slot bonus and spread the savings through the rest of the draft again. But O’Dowd warns that the top of the draft isn’t a time to get cute, even if the Pirates plan to build their drafts in the “aggregate” like the Baltimore Orioles.

“If you look historically at championship teams and how they’re built, they are built through the draft and sustained through the draft,” O’Dowd said. “The bulk of the future WAR comes from the first two picks that you have in every draft. There won’t be a more important decision the Pirates make than the picks they make on Sunday night.

“I feel clubs, at times, can try to outsmart the draft. That’s the worst possible thing that you can do. You need to take what you feel is the best player that’s going to impact your club the longest because you don’t know what’s going to be there for your next pick. You can’t outsmart the draft, simple as that.”